New lending by Chinese banks bounced back in August from a scary drop in July, easing fears that the end of a housing bubble will cause an abrupt slowdown in the economy.

    However, loan growth remained below historical levels. That, coupled with surprisingly low inflation numbers for August, suggests that the authorities may yet feel the need to pump the economy once again to ensure it reaches their target of 7.5% growth this year–despite promises that they won’t.

    Consumer prices rose by only 2.0% in the year to August, while factory gate prices fell by 1.2% on the year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

    The People’s Bank of China said total social financing, a broad measure of lending by both the official and shadow banking sectors, was 957.4 billion yuan (US$156.1 billion) in August, up sharply from 273.1 billion yuan in July. That figure had been a six-year low and was so out of line with expectations that the PBoC broke with tradition to explain away what had happened.

    But that was still down by over a third from 1.57 trillion yuan in August last year, and also well below a monthly average of 1.75 trillion of yuan so far this year, according to calculations by Reuters.

    The decline is due largely to the fact that credit from the huge and loosely-regulated shadow banking sector has dried up in recent months, as the authorities have clamped down on efforts to get round an official monetary policy. At the same time, they have tried to incentivize the larger, official banks to lend more to small and medium-sized enterprises, instead of focusing on bigger, state-backed enterprises that pose a lower credit risk.

    According to Reuters, the share of the official banking sector in new lending in August was 73%, up from only 51% a year ago.

    Credit demand in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed sharply this year as property prices have turned down, exposing banks to big losses on their real-estate loans.

    But Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday that China wouldn’t loosen credit conditions again, the way it had done in April, saying that it was more important to target existing support more precisely at more productive sectors of the economy, such as SMEs.

    New loans from the official banking sector rebounded to 702.5 billion yuan in August, from 385 billion in July. They’re now up 13.3% from a year ago.

    继今年7月出现大幅下跌后，中国银行新增贷款在8月份出现反弹，缓解了市场对房地产泡沫破裂或导致经济增速突然放缓的担忧情绪。

    然而，贷款增速仍低于历史水平。再考虑到8月份低于预期的通货膨胀数据，中国政府可能会由此认为有必要再次发力稳增长，以确保实现今年7.5%的增长目标，尽管此前他们承诺不会推出强刺激措施。

    根据国家统计局的数据，截止今年8月份，居民消费价格同比仅上涨2.0%，而工业品出厂价格则同比下降1.2%。

    中国人民银行表示，8月份的社会融资总量（衡量官方银行和影子银行总放贷量的广义指标）为9574亿元（约合1561亿美元），较7月份的2731亿元大幅上升。7月份社会融资总量为6年来最低，并大幅低于市场预期，促使中国人民银行打破常规，出面解释了一番这种状况。

    但据路透社（Reuters）统计，8月份的社会融资总量与去年同期的1.57万亿元相比仍然下降了超过三分之一，也远低于今年迄今为止1.75万亿元的月平均水平。

    社会融资总量下降的主要原因是，近几个月来政府接连对围绕官方货币政策“打擦边球”的行为进行重拳打击，使来自规模庞大、疏于监管的影子银行体系中的信贷供应几近枯竭。与此同时，政府还鼓励大型银行向中小型企业放贷，而不是只专注于信用风险较低的大型国企客户。

    据路透社报道，8月份，正规银行部门新增贷款占比为73%，高于上年同期的51%。

    今年以来，这个世界第二大经济体的信贷需求已大幅放缓，而房价掉头向下，使得银行业面临地产贷款出现重大损失的风险。

    但李克强总理本周一表示，中国不会像今年4月那样再次放松信贷门槛。他表示，更重要的是要实行定向调控，把已有的存量货币和增量货币向经济中效率更高的产业倾斜，如中小企业。

    8月份，正规金融部门的新增贷款额从7月的3850亿元反弹至7025亿元，比去年同期增长13.3%。（财富中文网）

    译员：Sissi