不久之前，人们还把俄罗斯视为金砖国家（BRIC，另外三个国家是巴西、印度和中国）中的一个，视为新兴市场的动力源泉所在。临近2013年年底时，许多受人尊重的基金经理人都对俄罗斯感到兴奋，甚至是乐观。时任摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）财富管理业务首席投资策略分析师的大卫•达斯特说，当时俄罗斯是他最看好的三条投资思路之一（另外两条是日本和黄金股）。那时，投资管理公司First Eagle Investment Management的全球投资团队完成尽职调查后刚刚归来，他们和前苏联地区的公司进行了接触，后者的市盈率只有五、六倍，很有吸引力——这个数字只有美国股票估值水平的几分之一，在新兴市场也是最低的市盈率之一。First Eagle旗下的全球收入累积基金（Global Income Builder Fund）投资组合经理乔治•卡普托当时曾说：“俄罗斯是个令人着迷的地区。”

    不光是他们发现俄罗斯很有魅力。机构投资信息与解决方案供应商eVestment的数据显示，到2013年12月，美国投资机构向俄罗斯投入的资金超过了370亿美元，几乎是三年前对俄投资的两倍。评级机构晨星（Morningstar）的数据表明，俄罗斯食杂连锁经营商Magnit的股东人数比前一个季度增加了200%。资产管理公司Schroders多资产投资业务负责人尼科•马雷最近在纽约的一次活动上对记者表示：“两个月前我们对俄罗斯将要采取的行动还一无所知。我们真的毫不知情。”

    随后，乌克兰出现了抗议活动，总统遭到驱逐。但真正让投资者感到不安的还是俄罗斯军队进入克里米亚以及俄罗斯政府迅速起草了克里米亚入俄的文件。今年初以来，俄罗斯股市MICEX指数已经下跌了12%。金融信息供应商FactSet 的数据显示，设在俄罗斯的上市公司目前的总价值约为4300亿美元——达斯特指出，这个数字还不及苹果公司（Apple）的市值。

    受俄罗斯和乌克兰传出的消息影响，美国投资者采取了相应措施。现在就来全面评估这些措施的影响还为时尚早，原因是许多基金只公布季度持仓情况，而这也许还要等上好几周。不过，对再次爆发冷战的担心已经产生了巨大影响。晨星高级研究分析师安妮特•拉尔森估算，去年12月份和今年2月份都公布了持仓情况的股票共同基金在2013年底持有约91亿美元的俄罗斯股票，到今年2月底，这个数字下降了13%，跌至79亿美元。这些基金在俄罗斯的平均配置比重减少了五分之一，下降到了0.76%。

    It wasn't too long ago that Russia was considered one of the BRIC powerhouses among emerging markets, along with Brazil, India, and China. Toward the end of 2013, many respected money managers were excited about Russia -- if not bullish. David Darst, then the chief investment strategist of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said Russia was one of his top three best ideas (along with Japan and gold mining stocks). The global investing team at First Eagle Investment Management had just returned from a due diligence trip to meet companies in the former Soviet Union, whose shares were trading at tempting valuations of just five or six times earnings, a fraction of U.S. stock valuations, and among the cheapest in emerging markets. "Russia is a beguiling geography," Giorgio Caputo, portfolio manager of First Eagle's Global Income Builder Fund, said at the time.

    They weren't the only ones to find Russia alluring. By December 2013, American institutions had poured more than $37 billion into Russia, nearly double what they had invested in the country just three years earlier, according to eVestment. The number of new owners in Russian grocery store chain Magnit had grown 200% from the previous quarter, according to Morningstar. "We just didn't know what Russia was going to do two months ago. We just didn't know," explained Nico Marais, head of multi asset investments at Schroders, while addressing journalists at a recent event in New York.

    Then protests broke out in Ukraine, ousting the president. But investors really squirmed after Russian forces entered Crimea and the Kremlin swiftly drew up the paperwork to formally annex the region. Since the beginning of the year, the Russian stock market index MICEX has fallen 12%. The value of all publicly traded stocks domiciled in Russia is now about $430 billion, according to FactSet -- less than the market cap of Apple (AAPL), Darst points out.

    It's too early to measure the full impact of U.S. investors' reaction to the news coming out of Russia and Ukraine, as many funds only report their holdings quarterly, and that could still be some weeks away. But worries about the next Cold War have already had a significant effect. Equity mutual funds that reported holdings for both December and February had about $9.1 billion in Russian stocks at the end of 2013; that amount had dropped 13% to $7.9 billion at the end of February, estimates Morningstar senior research analyst, Annette Larson. The funds' average allocation to Russia declined by a fifth, to 0.76%.  

    一些投资者以前觉得俄罗斯股票看起来便宜得不可思议，现在他们认为，前者几乎是无法抗拒的廉价证券。近几周，MSCI俄罗斯指数成分股的市盈率只有三、四倍——只是这也可能意味着这些公司的风险非常高，就算这样的折价水平也不能让它们蕴含的危险变得理所当然。

    达斯特现在是摩根士丹利的一名高级顾问，他说：“对我来说，这就像有人在大喊，如果你可以闭上眼睛，那就别再睁开了，几年以后你也许会有非常大的惊喜——也许，只是也许。”

    的确，固定收益投资公司DoubleLine新兴市场固定收益团队负责人兼该公司新兴市场固定收益基金（Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund）经理露丝•帕迪利亚说，俄罗斯债券看起来依然很好。西方对俄罗斯的制裁让市场感到恐惧时，帕迪利亚却把自己原本就已经重仓持有的俄罗斯债券仓位又提高了一个百分点。实际上，如果不是债券价格反弹得这么快，她还会进一步增持。她说：“当时的介入空间不是很大。”这只基金现在持有VTB和Sberbank等俄罗斯银行以及国有能源集团Gazprom发行的公司债。帕迪利亚指出，尽管以前政府的干预行动曾经毁了一些公司，但债券持有人的资金都能悉数收回。她说：“我们觉得，对俄罗斯要用另外一种思路，这可不是1998年的俄罗斯。”不过，对许多投资经理人来说，如果要他们现在就对俄罗斯投资，他们的回答更有可能是“没门”。

    2005-2006年，资产管理公司Artio Global Investors（后被Aberdeen Asset Management收购）前投资经理鲁道夫-里亚德•尤尼斯曾向大约50家俄罗斯和东欧公司投资了近160亿美元。最近，尤尼斯成立了资产管理公司R Squared Capital Management。他说：“我们曾经是俄罗斯最大的投资者，或者最大的投资者之一。”然而，几个月前他转让了手中的最后一批Sberbank股票——时间就在乌克兰危机升级之前——原因是他对这些公司的表现不满意。他指出：“它们对股东不像以前那么好了。如果情况从好变成不怎么好，或者从差变成更差，通常就不容易赚到钱。”

    截至目前，里亚德一直在观望，但他也一直密切关注着一些公司（他不愿透露都有哪些公司），特别是私营企业，而不是那些由俄罗斯政府控制的公司。里亚德说：“我们觉得（股价）现在已经大幅下跌，而且正在等待适当的切入点，以便在那里插上一脚，或者试试水。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Now, some investors who thought Russian stocks looked incredibly cheap before think they're practically irresistible bargains now. Companies in the MSCI Russia Index have traded as low as three or four times earnings in recent weeks -- though that could also mean that the companies are so risky, even the discounts don't justify the danger.

    "To me that is screaming, if you could close your eyes, and not look again, you might be very pleasantly surprised a few years from now -- maybe. Maybe," says Darst, now a senior advisor to Morgan Stanley (MS).

    Indeed, Luz Padilla, head of DoubleLine's emerging markets fixed-income group and manager of its Emerging Markets Fixed Income fund, says Russian bonds still look great. When Western sanctions against Putin scared the market, she increased her already significant Russian exposure by about one percentage point. In fact, she would have bought more, except prices bounced back so quickly "there wasn't much of a buying window," she says. The fund currently holds corporate bonds issued by Russian banks including VTB and Sberbank, and by state-controlled energy company Gazprom. Even when government interference has ruined companies in the past, Padilla adds, bondholders got paid in full. "Russia, for us, is a different calculus," she says. "This is not the Russia of 1998."

    Still, for many portfolio managers, the answer to investing in Russia right now sounds more like "hell no."

    Back in 2005 and 2006, Rudolph-Riad Younes, the former portfolio manager at Artio Global Investors (before it was sold to Aberdeen Asset Management) who has recently launched R Squared Capital Management, had invested nearly $16 billion in about 50 companies across Russia and Eastern Europe. "We were one of the largest, if not the largest investor in Russia," he says. But a few months ago, he sold the last of the shares he owned in Sberbank -- before the tensions in Ukraine escalated -- because he was not satisfied with how the companies were behaving. "They were getting less shareholder-friendly than before," he says. "When you go from good to less good, or bad to more bad, usually it's not a good time to make money."

    So for now, he's sitting on the sidelines, but he's keeping a close eye on a few names (he won't say which), especially private companies, as opposed to those controlled by the Russian state. "We feel like [the prices] have come down a lot, and we are waiting for the right entry point, to have a foot in the door, or a toe in the water," he says.