As the New Year begins, America's equity strategists, analysts, and pundits are making their forecasts for 2014 and beyond. And as usual, Wall Street is speaking with one voice: The talk you hear on the business networks and in the banks' "cheat sheets," "chartbooks," and "equity year ahead" reports is so overwhelmingly, uniformly positive that it's positively boring.

    It shouldn't be, because the opposite case is far more compelling and alarming. It has both math and history on its side.

    This time, the conventional view is that a surge in profits will drive stock prices far higher in 2014, and for many years thereafter. That's something of a departure from the experience of the recent past, but it's absolutely essential to bolstering the argument for equities. In recent years, the story hasn't been robust earnings at all, but steeply rising prices. Since the end of 2011, profits for the S&P 500 (SPX) have risen just 11.2%, or around 5.5% a year, an extremely mediocre performance.

    By contrast, the index has jumped 45% in the same period, outstripping profit gains by 34 points. The explosion in prices relative to earnings has driven the S&P price-to-earnings ratio from 14.5 to 18.9. The average P/E since 1928 stands at 16, which means that investors' enthusiasm for stocks has transformed a bargain into a relative extravagance signaling danger ahead.

    Even the bravest bulls wouldn't argue prices will continue to far outpace the earnings that must eventually justify those prices. Hence the rationale that we're on the cusp of a big upswing in corporate profits.

    Let's examine the predictions that have been welcoming the New Year. Overall, America's equity analysts project that EPS for the S&P will rise 9.6% in 2014. In most cases, the individual banks forecast that earnings will grow at close to double digits, and P/Es will shrink a bit, so that investors will get both solid returns, and stocks will reestablish highly attractive levels of valuation through the elixir of fast-rising profits. It's a Wall Street classic.

    Goldman Sachs (GS), for example, sees the S&P gaining slightly more than 7% annually over the next three years, and profits growing even faster on an annualized basis, at 8%. Bank of America (BAC) forecasts 10.2% earnings growth for 2014, versus an 8.9% increase in stock prices. So both scenarios draw a future of both big returns and cheapening valuations, all courtesy of strong earnings. An exception is J.P. Morgan (JPM). The bank has a 2014 target of 2075 for the S&P, a gain of 13%, with earnings rising only 9%. In that scenario, the current P/E would get even richer in a continuation of the mania of 2012 and 2013.

    What are the odds that profits will swell at a double-digit rate? It's important to note that profits already stand at record levels: Operating profits as a percentage of sales are now 9.7%, the highest level in the 20 years S&P has been tracking that metric. That exceeds the 9% in the flush days of 2006 and 2007, and it's an extraordinary 2.6 points above the two-decade average of 7.1%. Keep in mind that a high PE (at over 19) on top of all-time record profits means that stocks are really far more expensive than they appear.

    进入新的一年后，美国股市策略分析师、分析师和评论人士都在预测2014年及以后的市场形势。华尔街的口径一如既往地一致。大家在商业频道以及投资银行的“小抄”、“图表集”和“来年股市”报告中看到的内容无一例外地大肆唱好股市，实在让人感到单调。

    其实不该是现在这种局面，原因是看跌远比看涨有吸引力，警示力也远胜前者，而且得到了数据和历史经验的支持。

    目前，传统观点认为大幅上涨的利润将推动股市在2014年以及随后的许多年里高歌猛进。这种观点有悖于近年来的实际情况，但要更坚定地唱好股市，它必不可少。这几年的故事根本就不是强劲增长的利润，而是稳步上涨的股价。2011年年底以来，标普500指数（S&P 500）的利润水平仅上升了11.2%，每年涨幅约为5.5%，表现极为平庸。

    相形之下，标普500指数在此期间蹿升了45%，超过利润涨幅34个百分点。股价相对于利润的激增已经让标普500指数的市盈率从14.5倍升至18.9倍。1928年以来，该指数的平均市盈率为16倍。也就是说，对股票的热情已经让投资者从讨价还价变得较为大手大脚，这是前方存在危险的信号。

    就算最勇敢的唱多者也不会说股价涨幅将一直远远超过盈利，因为利润最终必须证明股价的合理性。企业盈利将迅猛增长的观点是否合理也需要得到验证。

    让我们来检验一下那些对2014年持乐观态度的预期。整体而言，美国股市分析师预计，2014年标普500指数的每股收益将提高9.6%。在大多数情况下，各家投行的预期是利润增幅将接近10%，市盈率将略有下降。这样，投资者就能在两方面都得到高额回报。而且，得益于利润的快速增长，股票的估值将再次回到非常有吸引力的水平。这是典型的华尔街论调。

    举例来说，高盛（Goldman Sachs）预计，今后三年标普500指数的年均涨幅将稍高于7%，而利润的年化增长率更高，将达到8%。美银（Bank of America）预测的2014年利润增速为10.2%，而股价涨幅为8.9%。在这两家公司对未来的预期中，回报率都很高，估值水平都会下降，这都得益于利润的强劲增长。与众不同的是摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）。这家投行为标普500指数设定的2014年目标点位是2075点，增幅为13%，而它预计的利润增长速度只有9%。在这种情况下，市盈率会从目前水平进一步上升，延续2012和2013年的狂热势头。

    利润实现两位数增长的可能性有多大呢？要注意的一个要点是，企业盈利已经处于历史最高水平：目前，营业利润占销售额的百分比为9.7%，是20年来的最高点。在这 20年里，标普500指数一直在随着这个数字波动。2006和2007年形势大好时，这个比例为9%，而目前的营业利润/销售额之比已经超过了这个水平。它比20年来7.1%的平均值高了2.6个百分点，这很了不起。请记住一点，建立在创纪录利润之上的高市盈率（超过19倍）意味着股票实际上要比表面看起来昂贵得多。

    For the bull case to win, earnings must rapidly rise from these already record levels. "For that to happen requires one of these, This-time-it's-different, new-normal arguments," says Jason Hsu, co-founder of Research Affiliates, a firm that oversees strategies for $156 billion in investment funds. Hsu notes that U.S. companies' heroic profit performance is chiefly the result of cost-cutting following the financial crisis, not revenue growth. "Companies are down to their core businesses and most productive people, all the rest is gone," he says. "It's not a growth story. Companies have not been investing in new products and technologies that would create strong growth in the future." In fact, over the past two years, S&P revenues have barely grown at all, remaining flat at around $10 trillion on an annual basis.

    Nor have earnings been surging of late. They've remained flat for the last four quarters, suggesting that it's extremely difficult to build big gains on top of already record results.

    In the face of daunting numbers, the pundits argue that the economic recovery now gaining momentum will allow profits to bust through what appears to be a ceiling. Hsu agrees that revenues will increase with renewed growth in GDP. But that doesn't mean profits will grow at faster than normal rates. It's highly possible that margins will fall from their historic highs, offsetting at least part of the increase in sales. Companies will need to hire more workers as they expand, driving up costs. Indeed, if they are to grow, companies will need to plough tens of billions in extra cash into capital investments, something that isn't happening yet. Those investments will raise costs of interest and depreciation.

    At best, margins will remain flat. "The era of cost-cutting is over," says Robert Corwin of research firm EVA Dimensions. Hence, the bulls -- without saying so -- are resting their entire argument on what must be huge increases in revenues. How big is huge? Let's take J.P. Morgan's prediction of 9% EPS growth. Usually, EPS grows about one point slower than overall earnings since companies are constantly issuing more shares. So if EPS waxes at 9%, profits in the overall economy need to grow at 10%. So at constant margins, what revenue growth is needed to hit that target?

    Profit expansion of 10% equates to "real growth" of 8% or so, since inflation is running around 2%. That's four to five points higher than the 3% to 4% GDP-increase figures that would be highly welcome for 2014. It won't happen.

    "The problem with the argument that profits can grow from already high levels is that they'd eventually absorb most of the economy," says Hsu. "More likely, they go back to the average, not soar above it forever." His conclusion is that at already high prices, only two possibilities exist. The first is that investors now think the world is a safe place, and are happy with low returns. If that's true, stocks should deliver around 4% real returns, the 2% dividend yield, and 2% real EPS growth that's the historic average.

    For Hsu, that's the less likely outcome. "The highly volatile component is what happens to valuations," he says. "If PEs go back to normal, revert to the mean, then investors will have negative returns over the next five years. That doesn't have to happen. They could get lucky. But history is the guide, and on average from these levels you can expect poor returns." But Hsu puts the chances that investors who buy now will suffer negative real returns by 2018 at 60% and 65%.

    An important proviso is that high valuations tell you little or nothing about what will happen over the next year. That's a good reason to ignore the pundits who love short-term predictions, such as "We'll go through a tough patch mid-year, and then the bulls will be back in charge late in the year." But buying in at high prices almost always yields disappointing returns over five or 10 years. Wall Street has never been more challenged to create arguments that it's a good time to buy stocks. It's performing an amazing feat of salesmanship. Don't believe it, investors. Let the lessons of history, and real market math, be your guide.

    要让牛市预期成为现实，处于历史最高点的利润就必须快速上升。为1560亿美元投资基金提供策略建议的资产管理公司锐联（Research Affiliates）联合创始人许仲翔说：“股市要上涨，就得有‘这次情况不同，要采用新标准’等诸如此类的观点相配合。”许仲翔指出，美国公司在盈利方面表现神勇的主要原因是金融危机之后削减了成本，而不是收入的增长。他认为：“公司潜心于自己的核心业务，保留了最有生产力的人员，其他的都已被摒弃。这不是增长。公司一直都没有向新产品和新技术投入资金，而它们正是今后强劲增长的源泉。”实际上，过去两年中，标普500指数的收入规模几乎没有提高，年收入水平一直保持在10万亿美元左右。

    最近，利润也并不是一路飙升。四个季度以来，企业盈利一直持平，表明在利润已经处于历史最高点的情况下，实现大幅提升极为困难。面对令人气馁的公司业绩，评论人士称，经济复苏的力度正在增大，将使利润得以突破所谓的上限。许仲翔也认为，随着GDP恢复增长，收入将提高。但这并不意味着利润增速将超过正常水平。利润率从历史高点回落、并且至少部分抵销销售额增长的可能性很高。随着各家公司扩大规模，它们需要雇佣更多员工，而这将推高成本。实际上，要实现增长，企业就得再将数百亿美元资金用于资本投资，而这种情况还没有出现。这些投资还会提高利息成本，增加折旧。

    利润率最多能持平。研究机构EVA Dimensions分析师罗伯特•科温说：“削减成本的时代已经结束。”因此，尽管没有做出这样的表态，但唱多者的唯一依据就是收入必须出现大幅增长。这个幅度要有多大呢？让我们采用摩根大通的预期，也就是每股盈利将增长9%。通常，每股收益增长率比整体利润低1个百分点左右，这是因为公司总是在发行新股。因此，如果每股收益上升9%，整个经济的利润水平就得提高10%。在利润率不变的情况下，收入要增长多少才能实现这个目标呢？

    由于通胀率约为2%，10%的利润增长就意味着“实际增长率”为8%左右。如果2014年美国GDP能增长3%-4%，人们就会非常满意。而8%的“实际增长率”比这个数字高了4-5个百分点，不可能成为现实。

    许仲翔说：“处在高点的利润还能上升，这个观点的问题在于，这样的利润最终会消耗大部分经济。更可能出现的情况是，利润回归平均值，而且再也不会超过这个水平。”他的结论是，目前股价已经很高，只存在两种可能性。一是现在投资者认为全球局势稳定，乐于接受低回报。如果真是这样，股市的实际回报率应在4%左右，股息收益率为2%，每股收益实际增长率为2%，也就是历史平均水平。

    许仲翔认为，出现这种局面的可能性较小。他指出：“很不确定的因素是估值水平怎样变化。如果市盈率回归正常，也就是回到平均值，那么今后5年投资者的回报率将为负值。不一定会出现这种情况。投资者可能会交好运。但历史可以借鉴，而且平均来说，在这样的市盈率水平上，回报率会很低。”许仲翔估算，如果现在建仓，到2018年实际回报率为负的可能性为60%-65%。

    一个重要的限制条件是，人们几乎不能、甚至根本无法通过高估值来判断下一年的局势。因此，我们大可无视那些喜欢进行短期预测的评论人士。他们会这样说：“年中市场将陷入困境，随后，牛市将在年末重新出现。”但在过去的5-10年中，在高点介入几乎总会带来令人失望的回报率。对华尔街来说，为“现在是建仓好时机”寻找依据从来没有像今天这么困难过。华尔街人士在充当推销员方面展现了令人吃惊的高超技艺。但投资者们，请不要相信他们的话。大家还是用以往的教训和对市场的正确估算作为自己的投资指南吧。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie