How does a company that outperforms the S&P index by a factor of three become a target for an activist shareholder?

    At first sight, the battle between auction house Sotheby's and Third Point, the hedge fund of financier Daniel Loeb, which has a 9.3% stake in Sotheby's (BID), seems puzzling. In a recent letter, Loeb demanded the immediate ouster of CEO and Chairman William Ruprecht, who in his 13-year reign has grown revenues at Sotheby's by almost 75%. Sotheby's shares are up more than 50% for the year.

    Despite these successes, results could even have been better, says Oliver Chen, luxury analyst at Citigroup. Compared to its privately held competitor Christie's, Sotheby's is lagging behind in Asia and in the contemporary art market. "Those are the places where buyers from emerging markets are gravitating towards, and where the biggest opportunities are."

    Sotheby's recent five-day, 3,571-lot auction in Hong Kong, which scored $23.3 million for an oil painting by Chinese artist Zeng Fanzhi on Saturday night, a record for Asian contemporary art, has done little to strengthen its market position, says Jeff Rabin of Artvest, a New York-based advisory firm. "Christie's is still absolutely dominant in Asia, both in the high end and the midlevel of the Chinese sector."

    On top of that, Sotheby's made a "critical error" by not focusing on lower end art sales, says Rabin. While the 269-year old auctioneer has achieved some spectacular results in high-end art, including fetching $120 million for Edvard Munch's "The Scream" last year, margins in this market are under pressure. "A buyer's premium starts at 25% for sales up to $100,000, but drop to 20% for lots between $100,000 and $2 million, to 12% for anything above that," says Rabin.

    To get prestigious works under the auction hammer, houses will often rebate a portion of the buyer's premium back to the seller, a practice known as an "enhanced hammer." Since Sotheby's and Christie's compete so aggressively at the high end of the market, margins are squeezed, says Rabin. "Whereas on the low end, there is no rebating, and auction houses are earning a full commission. That is the kind of business that keeps the lights on in difficult times. It is also a part of market that Sotheby's has virtually abandoned."

    According to Rabin, Sotheby's has focused mainly on high-end properties. "It is a strategy that doesn't work."

    A focus on lower end auctions will not cheapen Sotheby's brand, which is one of the oldest and most respected in the art world, says Rabin. "It didn't for Christie's, which has a sterling name as well. Focusing on cheaper lots is a good way of attracting new customers. Wealthy people don't start buying at the highest end, no matter how much money they have. They will have to develop a taste for collecting art first, for instance by starting at the $150,000 level and moving up from there. That's what makes Christie's so strong: It caters to every segment of the market place." 

    一家市场表现超过标准普尔指数三倍的公司，为什么会成为维权派投资者攻击的目标？

    乍一看，拍卖公司苏富比（Sotheby's）与对冲基金Third Point之间的较量让人完全摸不着头脑。投资家丹•勒布旗下的对冲基金Third Point持有苏富比9.3%的股份。在最近的一封信中，勒布要求苏富比立即驱逐CEO兼董事长威廉•鲁普雷希特。鲁普雷希特在苏富比任职13年，在此期间，这家公司的收益增加了约75%。苏富比股票今年的涨幅超过了50%。

    然而，尽管取得了这些成功，但花旗集团（Citigroup）奢侈品分析师奥利弗•陈却认为，这家公司原本可以有更好的表现。相比其私营竞争对手佳士得拍卖行（Christie's），苏富比在亚洲市场和当代艺术市场均落于下风。“这些领域更吸引新兴市场的买家，也蕴藏着最大的机遇。”

    近期，苏富比在香港举行了为期五天的拍卖会，共有拍品3,571件，其中中国艺术家曾梵志的一幅油画在周六晚上以2,330万美元成交，创下亚洲当代艺术品拍卖的记录。但纽约咨询公司Artvest的杰夫•拉宾认为，这对于加强苏富比市场地位的作用微乎其微。“佳士得拍卖行在亚洲依然占据主导地位，包括中国的高端与中端市场。”

    拉宾认为，除此之外，苏富比还犯下了一个“关键性错误”，那就是没有重视低端艺术品销售。虽然这家足有269年历史的拍卖行在高端艺术品市场取得了令人瞩目的成绩，比如爱德华•蒙克的作品《呐喊》（The Scream）在去年拍出了1.2亿美元，但它在这个市场的利润却面临着压力。拉宾说：“售价100,000美元的拍品的买家佣金为25%以上；而100,000美元至200万美元之间的拍品，买家佣金则降至20%；200万美元以上的拍品，佣金仅有12%。”

    为了获得著名作品的拍卖权，拍卖行通常会将一部分买方佣金作为回扣支付给卖方，这就是所谓的“加强槌”。拉宾认为，苏富比和佳士得拍卖行在高端市场的竞争如此激烈，利润必然受到挤压。“而在低端市场不存在回扣，拍卖行可以获得全部的佣金。这些业务才是拍卖行在困难时期得以维持的依靠。而苏富比实质上已经放弃了这部分市场。”

    据拉宾表示，苏富比将重心主要放在高端物品拍卖。“这种策略并不成功。”

    拉宾称，苏富比是艺术界历史最悠久、最受尊敬的拍卖行之一，重视低端拍卖并不会贬低它的品牌价值。“声望与苏富比不相上下的佳士得拍卖行就没有这样的问题。关注较为低廉的拍品是吸引新客户的一种很好的策略。有钱人不会一开始就购买最高端的拍品，不论他们多么富有。首先，他们要培养收藏艺术品的品味，比如，首先从150,000美元这个级别开始，逐步提高投资级别。这正是佳士得拍卖行的优势所在：它能满足每一个细分市场的需求。”

    With the recent adoption of a poison pill that prevents an investor from acquiring more than 10% of its shares, the battle lines between Sotheby's and Third Point seem to have been drawn. "Ruprecht and his board of directors have bought themselves some time to align themselves with the other shareholders," says Citigroup's Oliver Chen. "The problem is that there is a variety of interests, both long-term and short-term, as well as starkly different views of the intrinsic value of the company. I don't know who is right, but Sotheby's should have probably been thinking about these challenges even without getting forced." Sotheby's declined to offer comment.

    The poison pill has not deterred Third Point, which, in an official statement, called the move "a relic from the 1980s."

    "Loeb is not the kind of guy who would pick a fight unless he is confident he can win," says Josh Black, an analyst at Activist Insight, a London-based research firm that tracks the performance and campaigns of nearly 200 activist shareholders. Black describes Loeb, who was instrumental in replacing former Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Scott Thompson with Marissa Mayer last year, as "a fine tuner."

    "He intends to get on Sotheby's board with the intention of staying there for a significant period of time," Black says. "There is a distinct possibility he will look within Sotheby's and find an insider to take Ruprecht's place." Third Point declined to comment for this article.

    By bringing Sotheby's challenges into the open, Loeb has already forced the auction house into the defensive position, says Rabin. "Collectors with a property for sale will still call Sotheby's and try to negotiate a deal, but they probably will feel not as confident about it as they used to be. The question of what is going on at Sotheby's, and what its future will be, will definitely linger in the back of their heads."

    In the battle for control between Sotheby's and Third Point there is probably one sure winner though: the shareholder. "On the whole, the involvement of a shareholder activist does very well for the company's stock," says Josh Black from Activist Insight. "In these kinds of battles, the removal of a CEO leads to an average annualized share price increase of about 7%."

    Citigroup's Chen has given the stock, which is at $50 as of Monday, a target of $55. "Regardless of the outcome, Loeb has brought up some valid things that need to be addressed. Now it's up to Sotheby's to make its case."

    最近苏富比决定采用毒丸计划，阻止投资者获得超过10%的股份，由此引发了苏富比与Third Point之间的战争。花旗集团的奥利弗•陈说：“鲁普雷希特和他的董事会为自己争取了一些时间，来与其他股东协调。问题是股东的利益各不相同，既有短期利益也有长期利益，而且股东对于公司内在价值的观点也存在明显分歧。我不确定哪一种观点是正确的，但就算没有外界的压力，苏富比也应该已经开始着手考虑这些挑战。”苏富比拒绝发表任何评论。

    毒丸计划未能让Third Point打消念头。这家对冲基金在一份官方声明中，称苏富比此举是“上世纪80年代的遗物。”

    伦敦调查公司Activist Insight的分析师约什•布莱克认为：“勒布不是那种会主动挑起事端的人，除非他有把握获胜。”Activist Insight一直跟踪约200名维权派股东的表现和活动。布莱克形容勒布是一位“出色的调音师”。去年，梅丽莎•梅耶接替雅虎（Yahoo）前任CEO斯科特•汤普森的过程中，勒布就发挥了重要作用。

    布莱克说：“他的目的是进入苏富比董事会，同时在一段时间内扮演重要角色。他很有可能从苏富比内部找人取代鲁普雷希特。”Third Point拒绝为本文发表意见。拉宾认为，通过将苏富比的挑战公开，勒布已经迫使这家拍卖公司处在防守位置。“有拍品的收藏者们依然会尝试与苏富比协商交易，但他们或许不会像以往那样信心十足。苏富比眼下正在经历什么变故？苏富比会有怎样的未来？这些问题或许会在收藏者的脑海中始终挥之不去。”

    苏富比与Third Point之间的控制权之争，有一方肯定是稳赚不赔，那就是股东。约什•布莱克说：“总体而言，维权派股东的活动对一家公司的股票有利。在这类控制权之争当中，更换CEO使年度股票价格平均上涨了约7%。”

    花旗集团的奥利弗•陈对公司股票的预期目标是55美元（周一为50美元）。“不论最终结果如何，勒布已经提出了一些苏富比必须解决的正当的问题。现在就看苏富比如何接招了。”（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓