对于PC制造商而言，查尔斯•达尔文的《进化论》比以往任何时候都要正确：要么适应快速进化的环境，要么灭绝。

    弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）副总裁J.P.葛文德解释道：“PC行业眼下的状况像极了《侏罗纪公园》里面的场景。一个小孩子问教授：‘恐龙到底去哪儿了？’教授回答说：‘我们每天都能看到它们：它们变成了鸟儿。’”

     实际上，PC行业正在快速进化，这已经不是什么秘密，而且这种变化并非完全出于无奈。据全球市场调查集团互联网数据中心（IDC）统计，上个季度，全球PC出货量减少了14%，连续四个季度出现年同比下降。而且，预计PC出货量将继续下降，至2013年底将下降8%。

    而造成这种状况的原因主要是平板电脑等移动设备的日益普及。据IDC预测，到2015年，全球平板电脑出货量将超过PC，达到3.324亿台，而PC出货量将仅有3.227亿台。对于普通计算机用户，甚至一些企业用户，使用平板电脑的优势非常明显：既然可以携带一款更轻薄、更便宜，而且功能基本相同的设备，为什么还要费劲携带一台笔记本电脑呢？

    传统PC也到了一个拐点，从百思买（Best Buy）花400美元购买的戴尔（Dell）笔记本电脑可以很好地处理大多数日常任务，而且可以连续使用许多年。以前的情况并非如此，葛文德回忆说：“以前， Windows操作系统每进行一次升级，都需要更强悍的芯片和更强大的计算机，必须有更大的内存和更高的马力，才能运行新的操作系统。”

    但从微软的Window 7开始，操作系统在同时代的PC上运行所需要的资源大幅减少。Window 7砍掉了令Windows Vista系统臃肿不堪的许多功能。它意味着，更多用户、消费者和企业可以在现有的设备上升级操作系统，不再需要更新计算机硬件或者买新机器。

    虽然PC的前景看起来异常严峻，但PC不会消失。目前仍有许多任务是平板电脑和智能手机无法完成的，或者至少可以说，完成不好。许多公司，比如联想（Lenovo），证明这个有数十年历史的行业依然充满活力。《财富》杂志（Fortune）最近的一篇文章披露，自从2005年收购IBM的PC部门以来，联想在PC研发和工厂中的投资使这家中国科技巨头的规模扩大了三倍，销售额超过330亿美元。它不走寻常路的设计包括广受赞誉的IdeaPad Yoga笔记本电脑，可从笔记本电脑变成一台Window 8平板电脑。

    For PC makers, Charles Darwin's Theory of Evolution holds true now more than ever: adapt to their rapidly-evolving environment or perish.

    "The PC industry is like that scene out of Jurassic Park, where the little kid asks the professor, 'What happened to all the dinosaurs?' and he responds, 'We see them everyday: They're birds,'" explains J.P. Gownder, Vice President for Forrester Research (FORR).

    Indeed, it's no secret the PC industry is fast evolving, and not entirely by choice. Shipments of PCs dropped 14% worldwide last quarter, according to the global market intelligence firm IDC, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year decline. And PC shipments are expected to fall further, as much as 8% through 2013.

    Much of that has to do with the popularity of mobile devices like tablets. IDC projects global shipments of tablets will pass PCs by 2015, with 332.4 million vs. 322.7 million PCs. For more casual computer users, and even some business professionals, the upside to having a tablet is obvious: Why lug around a laptop, when they can tote something lighter, thinner, and often cheaper around with many of the same features?

    Traditional PCs have also reached a point where that $400 Dell (DELL) laptop from Best Buy (BBY) can handle most daily tasks just fine and will be able to do so for several years to come. That wasn't always the case. "It used to be every time you upgraded the operating system on the Windows side, you needed a more powerful chip and a more powerful computer with more memory with more horsepower to run that operating system," recalls Gownder.

    But starting with Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows 7, which cut down on the bloat of Windows Vista, the operating system required fewer resources to run on many contemporary PCs. That meant more users, consumers and businesses alike, could upgrade the operating system on their existing machines without upgrading the parts on their computer or buying a new one.

    As grim as their prospects might seem however, PCs aren't going anywhere. There remain tasks tablets and smartphones simply can't do, or at least do well. And companies like Lenovo have proven there's still life yet in the decades-old industry. As a recent Fortune feature revealed, Lenovo's investments in PC R&D and factories have helped the Chinese tech giant triple in size since it bought IBM's PC division in 2005, to $33 billion-plus in sales. Its outré designs include the widely-praised IdeaPad Yoga laptops, which convert from notebooks into Windows 8 tablets.

    不断变化的市场使其他PC制造商不得不更加注重创意，于是促成了葛文德所谓的计算机历史上史无前例的试验时期。比如，今年早些时候，戴尔发布了仅有5磅重的XPS 18一体机。这款机器配有18.4寸触摸屏，意味着用户在家中可以随意移动。而有报道称台湾公司宏碁（Acer）将尝试不同的方向。宏碁下周推出的全新一体机将放弃微软和英特尔（Intel），转而运行谷歌（Google）的安卓（Android）操作系统，同时使用德州仪器（Texas Instruments）的芯片。

    这些产品正是葛文德和高德纳研究公司（Gartner Research）的北川美佳子等分析师们对PC行业保持乐观的原因。他们认为，即使PC装机量有所下降，PC行业依然能够坚持下去。据高德纳预测，PC装机量下降的趋势将从明年首先在美国开始，下降约4%，降至1.8亿台，并在2015年将蔓延至全球。过去，一个三口之家可能有两至三台电脑，但北川美佳子预测，这种情形将一去不复返。消费者将使用平板电脑完成大部分任务，而PC将被用于完成一些繁重的任务。

    随着计算机进一步发生必要的进化，它们将以更多令人惊奇的形式出现。有些东西已经在行业内出现，比如谷歌眼镜。届时甚至会出现“嵌入式计算设备”。这类设备的计算活动不需要大量用户输入，而是可以跟踪用户日常生活：Nest智能恒温器就是最好的例子。葛文德说：“如果是这样，那就相当于迅猛龙变成了鸟类。”（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    The changing market is forcing other PC makers to also get more creative, leading to what Gownder calls the most unprecedented period of experimentation in the history of computing. To wit, Dell launched its XPS 18 earlier this year, a five-pound all-in-one desktop with an 18.4-inch touch screen meant for users to move around the home. Likewise, Taiwan-based Acer will reportedly take a different tack when it announces a new all-in-one desktop next week shunning Microsoft and Intel (INTC), and running Google's (GOOG) Android operating system with a Texas Instruments (TXN) chip.

    Products like these are what make analysts like Gownder and Gartner Research analyst Mikako Kitagawa optimistic the PC will stick around even if the number of "installed" PCs declines, which Gartner predicts will start happening next year in the U.S., falling 4% to 180 million units, and globally in 2015. In the past, a household with three family members might have two or three computers, but that scenario won't happen any more, predicts Kitagawa. They'll rely on tablets for most things, and one PC shared among them to do the heavy lifting.

    As computers further evolve out of necessity, they will yield even more surprising form factors, something the industry is already seeing with Google Glass and even tangentially, "embedded computing devices," devices with computing activity that don't require a lot of user input but track various aspects of users' day-to-day: the Nest home thermostat being one contemporary example. Says Gownder: "In this case, the velociraptor has turned into a finch."