又到了一年一届的国际消费电子展（Consumer Electronics Show）。每年的消费电子展上，都会有一系列吸引眼球的产品设备。这些惊喜究竟能否转变为真正的销售额则完全是另一回事。当电子生产商们正摩拳擦掌，准备本周在拉斯维加斯向世人展示最新产品时，让我们回顾一下去年展会上大放异彩的科技成果，看看它们的现况如何。

    1、汽车技术——成功！

    去年，包括福特（Ford）、通用（GM）和梅赛德斯（Mercedes）在内的诸多高端汽车商在展会上展示了一系列基于软件的车载系统，它们被称作“信息娱乐”产品。这绝不是一个新概念。许多年前，在消费电子展的前身——计算机世界博览会上，比尔•盖茨就已经提出了这个理念。【如今，微软（Microsoft）正在为福特的同步系统提供技术支持。】将智能手机与汽车相连接具有相当大的吸引力，原因显而易见：从播放音乐到在一个新的城市进行导航，车载系统能帮助司机完成各种工作。最终，汽车商们似乎已经由衷地接受了这个理念，通用公司在去年10月招募了10,000名程序员和软件专家，由此可见一斑。这些新成员将会改进类似凯迪拉克用户体验（Cadillac User Experience）这样的系统。

    2、超级本——表现平平

    看到苹果（Apple）的MacBook Air系列如此成功，英特尔（Intel）决定推出超级本，让Windows电脑的制造商也从中分一杯羹。不过就像PC机曾经的别称一样（比如“上网本”），这种“超级本”的定义很快变得模糊不清。弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester）的分析师詹姆斯•迈克奎维说：“这个术语仅指那些使用固态存储介质的设备，结果许多硬件制造商欺骗了顾客，比如说并没使用固态硬盘，并打出诱人的低价。”不论哪种情况，对顾客来说都不划算。“顾客在百思买（Best Buy）看见一台400美元的笔记本电脑时，很难不问自己‘为什么我要花900美元去买一台超级本？’”另一个问题在于：英特尔在Windows 7寿命将尽时才着手实现这一想法，而许多顾客似乎决定等到Windows 8上市再更换新电脑——不管是哪种电脑。

    3、交互电器——表现平平

    一间体贴入微的厨房？ 2012年消费电子展的一系列智能电器都体现了这种理念，比如LG展出的Smart ThinQ电器，其中包括一个智能冰箱和炉子。迈克奎维说，尽管这些工具十分有趣，顾客却仍然在等待一款“杀手锏应用”，让人们愿意费心在厨房里安装各种软件。他补充说：“现在还没有什么实现联网家庭的理由。”就目前而言，如此高科技的电器看起来还仅仅是吸引关注的“炫酷”模型，虽然大多数人走的时候都拿了一台没有实际用处的模型。

    Another year, another Consumer Electronics Show. At every CES, a series of devices become theones to watch. Whether that excitement translates into genuine sales is another question entirely. As gadget makers prepare to unveil their latest in Las Vegas this week, we took a look at the technology that stole last year's show to see how things turned out.

    1. Car Technology -- Bingo!

    Last year many top automakers, including Ford (F), GM (GM), and Mercedes, were on hand to show off an array of new in-car software-based systems, so-called "infotainement" units. This is by no means a new idea; Bill Gates championed the concept at CES' predecessor COMDEX years and years ago. (Current Microsoft (MSFT) technologypowers Ford's SYNC system.) The appeal of linking a smartphone to a car is obvious: built-in software system can help drivers do everything from stream music to navigate a new city. Finally, automakers seem to have wholeheartedly adopted the idea, evidenced by GM hiring 10,000 programmers and software experts in October. They'll work on improving systems like Cadillac's CUE.

    2. Ultrabooks -- Not so much

    A direct response to Apple's (AAPL) successful MacBook Air line, Intel's Ultrabook initiativewas intended to help Windows PC makers fight fire with fire. But like previous PC monikers -- netbooks, for one -- the definition of what qualified as an "ultrabook" quickly became blurred. "The term is only supposed to apply to devices with solid state storage and so many hardware makers ended up cheating, including spinning hard drives to get a cheaper price," explains Forrester (FORR) analyst James McQuivey. Either way, customers have had a hard time justifying their purchase. "It's really hard not to walk into Best Buy, see a $400 laptop and ask, 'why should I spent $900 on these ultrabooks?'" Another problem: Intel (INTC) helped launch the initiative right at the end of Windows 7's lifespan. Many consumers seem to have decided to wait until Windows 8 became available to buy new PCs -- of any kind.

    3. Interactive Appliances -- Not so much

    A kitchen that thinks for you? That was the idea behind a number of smart appliances unveiled at CES 2012, including LG's line of Smart ThinQ appliances that included a smart refrigerator and stove. But while these gadgets may be fun, consumers are still waiting for a 'killer app' that will make a kitchen full of software worth the hassle, says McQuivey. "There is very little reason for a connected home, yet," he adds. For the time being, such high-tech appliances appear to be "gee-whiz" models that drive some interest, even if most people walk away with a brainless value model.

    4、联网电视——表现平平

    联网电视的情况与交互电器一样，从网飞（Netflix）、Roku和Xbox Live上观看电影和表演固然很好，但是却无法通过应用和其他流媒体服务来吸引消费者。迈克奎维说，2012年联网电视在市场上泛滥——根据Strategy Analytics的统计，到2012年底，全球家庭中有超过1亿台智能电视——但是用户并没有跳出观看传统电视的习惯。也许传言中的苹果电视（是的，又是苹果）能让消费者相信他们可以用电视干一些看电影以外的事情。据说英特尔也有能力做到这一点。

    5、平板电脑——成功！

    去年，平板电脑制造商除去在屏幕上做文章之外，也更加敢于在外型上下功夫。联想（Lenovo）展示的IdeaPad Yoga是一台13英寸的笔记本，类似于超极本——换言之，屏幕张开后既轻又薄。瞧：这就是一台随时响应，功能齐全的平板电脑。尽管现在已经有多种平板电脑，而且它们几乎无处不在，麦克奎尔依然期待今年能有更多的试验品诞生。

    6、连接WiFi的照相机——表现平平

    用户总是希望能立刻分享自己的相片和视频。2012年，数码相机试着向安卓和iPhone取经。索尼（Sony）、HTC和诺基亚（Nokia）在消费电子展上推出了能连接WiFi的相机，向顾客口袋里的智能手机发出了挑战。它们的优点是画质更高，缺点是顾客得掏腰包购买一款和智能手机功能相同的产品。目前大家对此观点莫衷一是。对业余的拍照者而言，智能手机已经足够了。

    7、Windows 8——情况不明

    鉴于2012年是微软最后一次在消费电子展上发表主旨演讲，至少他们还是吸引了大家的眼球。微软的Windows 8操作系统支持触控界面，这个界面在Windows Phone上看起来非常像拼接式风格的地铁指示牌。尽管电脑制造商们希望去年秋天发布的Windows 8能够提振一路下滑的PC机销量，情况却未能如他们所愿。根据NPD集团的信息，PC机的节日期间的销量同比下降了11%。用户对操作系统也是褒贬不一。

    8、OLED电视——表现平平

    有机发光二极管简称OLED，在2012年的消费电子展上风靡一时——理应如此。高清画质配上4毫米厚的显示屏，对家庭观众来说可谓一次全新的体验。问题在于，没有人买得起。LG于本周宣布，其55英寸OLED屏幕将于3月发售，售价为惊人的12,000美元。

    4. Connected TV -- Not so much

    The same holds true for connected television, which is great for streaming movies or shows via the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Roku or Xbox Live, but has failed to engage consumers with apps or other streamed offerings. Connected TVs flooded the market in 2012 – more than 100 million smart TVs were in homes worldwide by the end of 2012 according to Strategy Analytics -- but consumers aren't expanding outside of traditional television watching, says McQuivey. Perhaps the rumored Apple television (yes, again) can convince consumers to use their TV for more than just movies. Intel is said to be working on such a device too.

    5. Tablets -- Bingo!

    Last year saw tablet-makers get even more daring with form factors beyond mere screen size. Lenovo unveiled the IdeaPad Yoga, a 13-inch laptop that resembled your typical ultrabook -- that is to say, thin and light -- until you flipped the screen back. Voila: a responsive, fully-functional tablet. While there have been plenty of tablet models that went absolutely nowhere, McQuivey expects even more experimentation this year.

    6. WiFi-Connected Cameras -- Not so much

    Instantly. That's how quickly users expect to share photos or videos. Digital cameras tried to learn a few things from Androids and iPhones in 2012. WiFi-capable cameras from Sony (SNE), HTC, and Nokia (among others) were unveiled at CES and provide competition for the smartphones already in consumers' pockets. The benefit is higher quality photos. The downside is opening your wallet for a product that does what your smartphone can already do. Reviews have so far been mixed. For the casual photographer, a smartphone does the trick.

    7. Windows 8 -- Jury's out

    Given 2012 was Microsoft's final appearance at CES as top keynoter, at least the company turned heads. Its Windows 8 operating system sports a touch-based interface, one that strongly resembles the tile-based Metro look in Windows Phone. Though PC makers had hoped Windows 8's launch last fall would boost slumping PC sales, that hasn't happened yet. According to the NPD Group, holiday PC sales fell 11% compared with the same period in 2011. Users have also had mixed experiences with the software.

    8. OLED Televisions -- Not so much

    Organic light-emitting diode televisions, or OLED, were all the rage at CES 2012 – and rightfully so. A high-quality picture coupled with a screen only 4 mm thick promised to offer a completely new experience for home viewers. The problem: no one can afford one. LG announced this week that its 55-inch OLED screen, which will be available in March, will cost a whopping $12,000.

    9、4G——成功！

    手机的网速总是越快越好。摩托罗拉（Motorola）、LG这样的公司深谙此道，推出了一系列支持第四代，即4G上网的产品。其上网速度仿佛为威瑞森（Verizon）定制的Droid Bionic的长期演进（Long Term Evolution, LTE）网络一样。4G的普及速度丝毫没有减慢的迹象。根据ABI研究公司的数据，LTE网络的使用者将以指数形式激增，从2012年的5,800万猛增到2017年的7.85亿。

    9. 4G -- Bingo!

    When it comes to mobile network speeds, faster is usually better. Companies like Motorola, LG, and others took that message to heart and let loose a slew of devices capable of fourth-generation, or 4G, speeds like the Droid Bionic for Verizon's Long Term Evolution (LTE) network. And it doesn't look like 4G adoption will slow down any time soon. According to ABI Research, the number of LTE subscribers is expected to grow exponentially, from 58 million in 2012 to 785 million in 2017.