达美航空（Delta）谋求收购维珍大西洋航空（Virgin Atlantic）之举可能是个天大的错误。虽说投资一家航空公司在任何时候都是有风险的，不过在今天看来，与维珍大西洋航空联姻对于达美航空来说显得尤其不明智。这笔交易有可能危害达美航空的市场，并且违反达美航空与欧洲合作伙伴签订的反垄断协议，同时在这个过程中又会花掉大量现金。另外，这起收购还会给达美航空带来两重额外的威胁，首先它会面临更严格的政府监管，同时维珍航空的创始人、充满传奇色彩的理查德·布兰森爵士也不是省油的灯，因此这笔交易的风险大于任何它可能带来的利益。

    新加坡航空公司（Singapore Airlines）本周一在一份简短的声明中宣布，将出售其持有的维珍航空49%的股份。消息传出，市场并没有太过惊讶。新航与维珍航空的合作始于1999年，不过由于新航的这笔投资赔得很惨，因此新航不得不在财报中一再把这笔股份的价值写低。一开始这些股份的市值为16亿美元，到了今年，其价值基本已接近为零。

    至于新加坡航空与维珍的联姻为何以失败告终，坊间总结的各种原因很多。新航希望通过这笔投资能够使它在航空业最有钱赚的领域——也就是美国和欧洲之间的洲际航班上占有一席之地。不过双方都未能达成任何有意义的合作协议来实现这个目标。实际上，双方真正实现班号共用还是去年的事，而这种合作10年之前就应该开始了。

    多年寻找下家无果后，新航的恶梦或许终于可以结束了。因为达美航空对维珍航空抛出了橄榄枝。维珍航空最吸引人的资产是它的跨大西洋航线。它十分有利可图，尤其是纽约飞伦敦的航线。维珍航空在伦敦的希思罗机场拥有一些极有价值的机位，早已令达美航空觊觎已久。一般认为，维珍航空会将这些机位转让给达美航空，让达美借助这家英国航空公司的力量，把它的帝国版图扩展到欧洲。

    对达美航空来说，这似乎是理所应当的做法，但这笔交易的麻烦其实很可能大于它的价值。首先，如果达美航空想在希思罗机场更有作为，它还不如从另一家航空公司那里买机位，因为那样更便宜也更容易。何况维珍航空为什么要把它的机位转让给达美航空呢？德勤会计师事务所（Deloitte）指出，与大多数媒体报道的恰恰相反，维珍航空在希思罗机场的机位并没那么多，它只拥有该机场3%到5%的机位，并且全部自用，而且大多数航线也是达美航空自己也运营的航线。不妨问问新加坡航空从维珍航空那里获得了多少个机位——答案是零。最近新加坡航空需要在希思罗机场为一趟新航班配置一个机位，结果它还是从南非航空（South African Airways）那里买的。

    至于旅客转机的情况又如何呢？有人认为维珍和达美应实现班号共用，让维珍航空的旅客在约翰肯尼迪机场直接转机搭乘达美的航班，反过来达美的旅客也可以在希思罗机场直接转乘维珍的航班。不过你在希思罗机场转过机吗？这个机场总是人满为患，旅客每次转机都要遭一回罪。而且，如果你认为维珍航空的创始人理查德·布兰森爵士会让从田纳西州来的美国旅客进他那位于希思罗机场3号航站楼的专用“俱乐部”休息室里等候转机吗？事实上，就连新加坡航空公司的头等舱旅客也进不去。

    Delta could be making a big mistake pursuing Virgin Atlantic. While investing in an airline is a risky venture at any time, a tie-up with Virgin today looks particularly bad for the Atlanta-based carrier. The deal could jeopardize Delta's marketing and anti-trust agreements with its European partners, while burning up a bunch of cash in the process. In addition, Delta would have to deal with the twin threats of increased government scrutiny on one hand, and Virgin founder Sir Richard Branson's larger-than-life ego on the other, outweighing any benefit that could come from such a deal.

    The markets weren't too surprised Monday when Singapore Airlines released a terse statement that it has entered talks to sell its 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic. The partnership that began in 1999 between the two airlines had become so unprofitable that Singapore was forced to write down the value of its stake in Virgin from S$1.6 billion to basically zero this year.

    There is plenty of blame to go around as to why Singapore wasn't able to make its venture with Virgin work. Singapore hoped the partnership would help it gain a foothold in the most profitable segment in the airline business – the transatlantic route between the U.S. and Europe. But both parties failed at executing any meaningful partnership agreements to allow that to happen; in fact, it was only last year that the two started codesharing their flights, something that should have happened a decade ago.

    But after years of fruitlessly searching for a buyer, Singapore's long, Richard Branson-fueled nightmare could be coming to an end. Enter Delta Air Lines (DAL). Virgin's allure remains its lucrative Trans-Atlantic routes, specifically the New York to London route. Virgin has a number of extremely valuable landing "slots" at Heathrow Airport, which Delta covets. The conventional view here is that Virgin will transfer those slots to Delta, allowing it to expand its empire in the only other major European player.

    While some see this as a "no-brainer," for Delta, any deal actually looks to be more trouble than it's worth. First, if Delta wants greater access to Heathrow, it would be cheaper and easier to just buy some slots from another airline, preferably one that it doesn't compete against. Why would Virgin turn over any of it slots to Delta, anyway? Contrary to most media reports, Virgin isn't some Heathrow gold mine slot machine, it only controls around 3% to 5% of them and uses all of them, mostly on routes that Delta already serves, according to Deloitte. Just ask Singapore how many slots it got from its deal with Virgin: zero. Indeed, when Singapore recently needed a slot pair for a new flight out of Heathrow it was forced to buy them from South African Airways.

    But what about connecting passengers? The thinking here is that Virgin Atlantic and Delta could codeshare flights to let Virgin passengers connect to points in the US out of JFK Airport on Delta, while Delta passengers could do the same on Virgin flights out of Heathrow. Have you ever connected through Heathrow to another destination? To save you the misery, the airport is always stuffed to capacity, making connecting a terrible experience for passengers. And if you think Sir Richard Branson is going to let Delta passengers from Chattanooga into his exclusive "clubhouse" lounge in Heathrow's Terminal 3, you better think again. Not even first class passengers on Singapore Airlines can gain entry.

    如果达美航空的旅客需要在一个地方转机，且需要搭乘一班达美航空本身不提供的航线，那么他们完全可以在天合联盟（Skyteam）在欧洲的其它枢纽转机，而且比在希思罗机场要容易得多。比如达美航空的旅客们如果在巴黎、阿姆斯特丹、马德里、罗马或米兰等地降落，可以转乘数千趟航班，前往数百个地点。而在希思罗机场，达美航空的旅客可以搭乘维珍航空的航班飞往18个目的地，而其中大多数目的地，达美航空也有自己的航班。就算维珍航空想加入天合联盟【它从未加入新加坡航空的星空联盟（Star Alliance）】，维珍航空有限的航线网络也不会给天合联盟带来什么好处。

    如果这还不够说明问题，千万别忘了维珍还正处于巨额亏损之中。上个财年，维珍航空的税前亏损达到8,020万英镑（约1.29亿美元）。事实上，上两个财年，维珍航空的亏损额已经让过去五年的利润荡然无存。维珍航空的问题在于，它在希思罗机场的业务模式基本已宣告失败。维珍航空有25%的国际航班和欧美航线航班是靠旗下的BMI航空为它提供国内乘客。BMI拥有希思罗机场11%的机位，相当于维珍的两到三倍。但最近英国航空公司（British Airways）把BMI收购至旗下，由此拥有了希思罗机场51%的机位。尽管在监管机构的要求下，英国航空公司被迫将部分机位让渡给维珍航空，但BMI在希思罗机场的重要性无可复制，从而让维珍的处境更加艰难。

    但对于维珍航空来说，达美航空和天合联盟很难取代BMI的重要性。尽管从理论上讲，天合联盟的成员也可以让旅客在希思罗机场转机，但维珍航空能提供的任何航线，天合联盟成员自己也能提供，而且更快、更便宜。天合联盟已经垄断了大部分跨大西洋航线，每天起飞超过250架次，因此几乎没有必要再增加新的航班了，尤其是在一些航班已经很多的繁忙航线上。而且天合联盟已经有了美国和欧盟的反垄断“免死金牌”，允许天合联盟成员合法共同定价。但如果天合联盟再增加一个成员，监管机构的反应也许不会那么友善了，甚至可能拒绝维珍航空参与共同定价。这样很快就会有效抹煞维珍与达美和天合联盟结盟所带来的利益。

    不过，达美航空不应与维珍大西洋航空联姻的最大原因也许是维珍大西洋航空的创始人兼大股东、亿万富翁理查德·布兰森。布兰森的维珍股份公司拥有维珍大西洋航空另外的51%的股份，因此布兰森对维珍航空有完全的控制权。维珍大西洋航空的首席执行官史蒂夫·李奇维对彭博新闻社（Bloomberg News）表示，即便新加坡航空出售了那49%的股权，布兰森也不大可能放弃他对维珍航空的近代制权。任何坐过维珍航空的人，或是了解理查德·布兰森的人，都不会对这个决定感到意外。这位大神最近雇了4位设计师，以他的脑袋为原型制造了许多冰块，用来放在头等舱旅客的饮料里。

    If Delta passengers need to connect to a destination not already served by its extensive network, they could do so more easily through one of its Skyteam partners' hubs in Europe, which, compared to Heathrow, are a breeze to connect through. And when they land in Paris, Amsterdam, Madrid, Rome or Milan, Delta passengers can take thousands of flights serving hundreds of destinations. At Heathrow, Virgin can take Delta passengers to 18 destinations, most of which it already serves. Even if Virgin wanted to join Skyteam (it never joined Singapore's Star Alliance), Virgin's limited route network would be of little benefit to the alliance.

    If that weren't enough, Virgin is also hemorrhaging cash. The airline posted a pretax loss of 80.2 million pounds ($129 million) for its fiscal year ending last February. In fact, the company's losses for the last two fiscal years have wiped out all profits made in the last five. Virgin's problem is that its business model at Heathrow is basically broken. The airline relied on the British airline BMI to feed up to 25% of its U.S. and international planes with domestic travelers. BMI had a massive 11% share of Heathrow's landing slots – two to three times as many as Virgin. But British Airways blew up that cozy arrangement by recently acquiring bmi, giving the flag carrier 51% of Heathrow's landing slots. While regulators have forced BA to relinquish some domestic slots to Virgin, they could never replicate BMI's heft at Heathrow, leaving it scrambling for a domestic partner airline.

    But Delta and its Skyteam partners are a poor substitute for BMI. While Skyteam's European airlines could theoretically connect their passengers through Heathrow, it wouldn't make sense as they could fly them directly to almost everywhere Virgin flies and beyond both faster and cheaper. Skyteam already operates the most flights over the Atlantic, with over 250 daily departures, so there is little need to add more flights, especially on the heavily traveled transatlantic route. Skyteam was granted anti-trust immunity by the US and the EU, allowing them to legally collude on prices. Regulators may not look too kindly on Skyteam adding yet another airline to the heap and could even go so far as to reject Virgin's entrance into the price setting cabal. That would effectively kill any minute benefit that would come from a tie up with Delta and its partners.

    But probably the biggest reason Delta shouldn't get in bed with Virgin Atlantic is Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Atlantic's billionaire founder and largest shareholder. His Virgin holding company owns the other 51% of Virgin Atlantic, giving Branson total control of the airline. Steve Ridgeway, Virgin Atlantic's chief executive, told Bloomberg News that Sir Richard is unlikely to relinquish control of Virgin Atlantic as part of a possible sale of Singapore's 49% minority stake. That should come to no surprise to anyone who has ever flown Virgin Atlantic or knows anything about Sir Richard at all. This is the man who recently commissioned four designers to create lifelike ice cubes of his head for passengers' drinks in Virgin Atlantic's tony "upper class" cabin.

    维珍航空离开布兰森能不能继续运转也很难说。维珍大西洋航空有很多让旅客津津乐道的特色，比如头等舱旅客有专门的接机服务，而且它对旅客的行李限重也很慷慨，这无不符合布兰森天马行空的性格和对传统的蔑视，因此维珍才会有那么多死忠的顾客。没有了布兰森，维珍航空也许一样难逃破产的命运。

    英国航空收购BMI之后，布兰森曾表示，维珍大西洋航空或许也应该加入某个大型航空联盟，但这并不意味着它要放弃对公司的控制权——更不用说把他的机位让给来自某些亚特兰大州的美国人。综上所述，达美航空最好只是邀请维珍大西洋航空加入天合联盟，把钱省下来干点别的事，比如维持好它新建的精炼厂，或是买一些急需的新飞机。

    译者：朴成奎

    It is hard to see Virgin operate without Branson at the helm. The airline's perks and amenities, from its complimentary chauffeured pickups for upper class passengers to generous baggage allowances for passengers in coach, fits with Branson's whimsical disregard for convention which has made Virgin such a hit with its fiercely loyal customers. Without Branson at the helm, Virgin might as well just liquidate.

    Branson has said that Virgin would probably need to join one of the big airline alliances in the wake of BA's takeover of BMI, but that doesn't mean he is about to give up control of the airline – let alone just give away landing slots to some Americans from Atlanta. Given all this, it would be best if Delta just invites Virgin to join Skyteam and saves its money for other things, like maintaining its new refinery or for buying some badly needed new jets.