刚刚过去的这个季度，华尔街的赚钱机器看来运转不佳，忧心忡忡的公司和投资者都回避进入资本市场。欧洲和本国交易业务的困境甚至可能造成华尔街一些鼎鼎有名的公司出现季度亏损。

    上周银行业分析师们终于看清了现实，大幅调低了原先乐观的盈利预期，引发银行股一波重挫。鉴于华尔街发生的所有变化，这本来不应该是什么意外。由于欧洲危机未了，银行业仍然还在摸索新的“轻风险”业务模式，2012年银行类股将继续面临挑战，但随着监管形势的明朗以及新的增长机会出现，华尔街有望早日重现光彩。

    由于节假日集中和年底活动关系，每年的第四季度华尔街的业务都非常清淡。资产管理公司往往会逐渐减少交易量，而公司方面也倾向于推迟到元旦后再公布新的交易。

    但2011年第四季度的业务似乎格外惨淡。分析公司Dealogic的数据显示，当季全球投资银行收入总额预计仅为139亿美元，较上年同期减少37%。由于公司决定延后IPO和增发计划，股票部分预计收入也只有26亿美元，较去年同期骤减67%。当季的并购交易收入预计也有显著下降，华尔街估计仅收入43亿美元，较上年同期缩水约23%。

    投资银行业务淡静的同时，华尔街银行的交易部门业务也同样惨淡。分析师们预计当季华尔街银行为执行更高的资本金要求，缩减了风险投资组合。另外，华尔街银行根据新规剥离利润丰厚的交易部门，预计也会对当季银行净利润带来消极影响。

    The Wall Street money-making machine looks to have malfunctioned badly in the last quarter as nervous companies and investors stayed out of the capital markets. Troubles in Europe and on the trading desks also contributed to what could be a loss-making quarter for some of the Street's biggest names.

    Bank analysts finally got the memo last week and drastically slashed their rosy earnings expectations, sending banks shares down sharply. This should have been no surprise given all the changes happening on Wall Street. The banking sector will continue to face headwinds this year as the crisis in Europe persists and the banks tinker with their new "risk-light" business models. But regulatory clarity and new growth opportunities could help Wall Street get its mojo back sooner rather than later.

    The fourth quarter of the year is usually slow for Wall Street given all the holidays and year-end activities. Asset managers usually ratchet back their trading, while companies tend to put off announcing new deals until after the New Year.

    But the fourth quarter of 2011 seems to have been even slower than usual. Global investment banking revenue is expected to total just $13.9 billion for the quarter, down 37% from the same period last year, according to data from Dealogic. The equity side of the business is expected to have brought in just $2.6 billion, down a whopping 67% from last year as companies decided to put off IPOs and secondary offerings. Revenue from mergers and acquisition is also expected to be down markedly in the quarter, generating an estimated $4.3 billion for Wall Street, down around 23% from last year.

    The muted activity in investment banking is expected to be accompanied by an equally weak showing in the banks' trading divisions. Analysts see the banks lowering their risk profiles in the quarter in order to comply with higher capital mandates. The spinning out of the banks' lucrative trading desks, due to new regulations, is also expected to have had a negative impact on the banks' bottom lines last quarter.

残酷的现实

    直到上周之前，银行业分析师们还在憧憬着华尔街第四季度业绩强劲。但这些乐观的预期不得不让位于残酷的现实，因为2011年最后三个月显然没什么业务，特别是12月份。盈利预期大幅下调。举例来说，上周五投资公司Sanford Bernstein的布拉德•辛茨将高盛（Goldman Sachs）的每股收益预期从3.15美元降至77美分，将摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的每股收益预期从亏损19美分降至亏损75美分。上周，其他一些分析师也下调了盈利预期，幅度同样巨大，降幅最大的是那些收入倚重投资银行和交易业务的华尔街银行。

    但高盛和摩根这两家大型经纪交易商由于不得不遵从新的银行业监管法规，遭受的打击尤其沉重。过去十年高盛靠自营交易曾获利数十亿美元，但由于在金融危机期间它已转变为一家银行控股公司，高盛不得不逐步撤出风险性业务。高盛交易部门的风险价值（VAR）2011年第三季度下降，导致该行出现上市以来第二个季度亏损。虽然普遍预计高盛凭借债券承销业务2011年第四季度能实现微利，但有形权益回报率预计将不到5%，惨淡经营。

    由于公司利润大幅下降，高盛员工们估计今年的奖金也会缩水。虽然这些员工还不至于饿死，但他们可能会开始考虑过去一年那些不眠之夜的付出是否值得。和摩根士丹利一样，高盛也在实行增效计划以提高利润率，目标是削减14亿美元成本。这相当于公司2011年运营费用的3-6%左右。削减费用固然有助于提高利润率，但不会增加公司收入。

    与此同时，市场普遍预计摩根士丹利将宣布2011年第四季度大幅亏损，部分是因为一笔高达18亿美元的一次性司法和解支出。由于公司债利差的变化，摩根士丹利预计还将公布第四季度公司债出现会计损失。

    像高盛一样，摩根士丹利的利润也随着压缩交易业务而大幅下降，这部分业务过去一直是它重要的利润来源。摩根士丹利也计划削减约14亿美元成本，包括裁减约1,600名员工，约占员工总数的3%。

    但与高盛不同，摩根士丹利最近一直在忙着再造自我，试图从内部实现提升。它正在大力发展财富管理和固定收益做市商业务，希望藉此实现利润来源多元化。虽然这两块业务的利润率相对低，摩根士丹利希望能通过规模效益带来足够多的资金。与此同时，公司需要支付与转型相关的直接和非直接成本，这也对公司第四季度的业绩产生了负面影响。

A new reality

    Up until last week bank analysts had modeled a strong quarter for Wall Street. But those upbeat expectations succumbed to reality once it became clear that there wasn't much business going on in the last three months of the year, especially in December. The cuts in expectations were drastic. For example, Sanford Bernstein's Brad Hintz on Friday slashed his earnings estimates for Goldman Sachs (GS) from $3.15 a share to 77 cents a share and its estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS) from a loss of 19 cents a share to a loss of 75 cents a share. Equally large cuts were seen by other analysts last week, with the largest cuts centered on banks that derive a large portion of their income from investment banking and trading.

    But the big broker dealers, Goldman and Morgan, seem to be the hardest hit, as they've had to comply with new banking regulations. Goldman made billions of dollars trading its own account over the last decade, but since it became a bank holding company during the financial crisis, it's been forced to pull back on risk-taking activities. The value at risk, or VAR, on Goldman's trading desks, was down in the third quarter, contributing to the bank's second-ever quarterly loss as a public company. While Goldman is largely expected to make a meager profit in the fourth quarter, thanks to its debt underwriting shop, its return on tangible equity, an efficiency ratio, is slated to come in under 5%, a dismal showing.

    Goldman employees are bracing for smaller bonuses this year as the firm's profit pie shrinks dramatically. While the bank's employees won't starve, they will probably start to wonder if all those sleepless nights last year were worth it. Goldman, along with Morgan Stanley, is implementing efficiency programs to boost profit margins, targeting $1.4 billion in cost cuts. That's equal to around 3% to 6% of the firms' 2011 operating expenses. But while cutting expenses does help profit margins, it won't grow revenue.

    Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is largely expected to report a steep loss in the fourth quarter, due in part to a one-time, $1.8 billion legal settlement. The bank is also expected to report an accounting loss for the quarter on its debt due to a shift in credit spreads.

    Like Goldman, Morgan Stanley's profit has been hit hard as it dialed back the risk on its trading desks, eliminating what had been a major profit center at the bank. It is also targeting around $1.4 billion in cost cuts, including the elimination of some 1,600 jobs, which is around 3% of its workforce.

    But unlike Goldman, Morgan Stanley has been busy trying to reinvent itself from within. It is aggressively growing its wealth management and fixed income market making businesses in an attempt to diversify its earnings streams. While both are relatively low margin businesses, the firm is hoping that it will generate enough money through scale. In the meantime, the direct and indirect costs associated with the transition will need to be paid, negatively impacting the firm's fourth quarter results.

欧洲的机会？

    摩根士丹利和高盛都将继续保持适当的资产负债表规模，寻找新的盈利方式。两家银行都需要面对导致公司不愿上市、也不愿发行债券的经济困境。欧债危机最终得到解决之前，预计市场难以恢复常态。

    不过，严重的欧债危机也可能给高盛和摩根士丹利带来机会。目前欧洲银行都在被迫提高资本金充足率、出售资产。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的分析师们预测，欧洲银行业的瘦身行动将导致高达130亿美元的市场重新分割。高盛和摩根士丹利凭借其庞大的规模和全球化覆盖，有望从相关业务中分得一杯羹。

    2012年银行业的另一个有利因素是与华尔街改革法案相关的监管不确定因素有望消除。一些争议最大的法案，如沃尔克法则（Volcker rules）和针对衍生品的林肯法则（Lincoln rules），年底前很可能明朗化。如果这些规定从轻实施，华尔街的利润可能会大幅反弹。

    华尔街正处于重建过程中，2011年第四季度反映的是震荡环境下壮士断腕的痛苦。摩根士丹利和高盛当前的股价都低于其内在资产价值，显然市场有些担心它们未来的盈利能力。公司定位的变化和实现转型的途径需要一段很长的时间才能重建投资者的信心。

An opportunity in Europe?

    Both Morgan and Goldman will continue to right size their balance sheets and attempt to find new ways to make money. Both will need to deal with economic troubles that have companies shying away from going public or issuing debt. A return to some sort of normalcy isn't expected until the European debt situation is finally resolved.

    But while European crisis is damaging, it could present Goldman and Morgan with an opportunity. European banks are being forced to raise their capital requirements and sell off assets. This slimming down of the European banks could see up to $13 billion in revenues up for grabs, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are well-positioned to eat up some of that business given their size and global reach.

    Another bright spot for the banks this year is potential end of the regulatory uncertainty associated with the Wall Street reform bill. Investors will most likely find out by the end of the year how some of the more controversial sections of the bill, like the Volcker rule and Lincoln rules on derivatives, will look. If the rules are implemented with a light touch, Wall Street could possibly see a massive resurgence in profit.

    Wall Street is under construction and this previous quarter reflects all the messiness associated with making tough repairs in a volatile environment. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are trading below their intrinsic asset values, so there is clearly some nervousness associated with their ability to make money in the future. Deciding what they want to be and how they want to get there will go a long way to restore investor confidence.