调查：iPhone 5市场需求空前高涨

Philip Elmer-DeWitt | 2011-09-15 17:06

ChangeWave一项调查的数据显示，对iPad的需求也在增长。

图片点击可放大图片来源：RBC

根据一项对2,200名潜在购买者的调查结果，加拿大皇家银行资本（RBC Capital）的麦克•阿勃拉姆斯基上调了对iPhone和iPad第四季的市场预期。该调查由市场调研公司ChangeWave Research在8月进行。据阿勃拉姆斯基称，调查显示市场“对iPhone 5的需求空前之高，此外返校学生购买iPad的意愿强烈”。

阿勃拉姆斯基在周二致客户的信中标出了调查的主要数据：（我引用如下）

• 31%的受访者称很可能或有可能购买iPhone 5，大大高于iPhone 4推出前的需求（25%）

• iPhone 4推出已经将近15个月，66%的现有iPhone用户很可能或有可能购买iPhone 5，显示升级周期将较大。

• 无线电信运营商订户中，54%受访的Sprint订户以及53%受访的T-Mobile订户表示，假如可以选择iPhone的话，自己很有可能或有可能倾向于购买iPhone。

• 调查数据还显示，返校学生购买iPad 2的意愿强烈，26%的人很可能或有可能购买iPad 2。ChangeWave的调查数据显示，85%的平板电脑购买者计划购买iPad，二月份时这一比例为82%。

根据以上数据，阿勃拉姆斯基将对iPad的第四季度销量预期（从1,050万部）上调至1,250万部，并将对iPad的2012年第一季度销量预期（从2,440万部）上调至2,700万部。他对iPhone今年第四季度的销量预期未变，仍为1,950万部。

下表是ChangeWave发布的平板电脑购买意向图。苹果（Apple）的竞争对手们要不寒而栗了。

译者：项航

RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky has raised his fourth quarter iPhone and iPad estimates based on the results of a survey of 2,200 potential buyers. The survey, conducted in August by ChangeWave research, showed what Abramsky called "unprecedented iPhone 5 demand and strong back-to-school iPad buying intentions."

In a note to clients issued Tuesday he ticked off the main data points: (I quote)

• 31% of those surveyed said they were very/somewhat likely to buy the iPhone 5, significantly exceeding pre-launch iPhone 4 demand (25%)

• With the iPhone 4 nearly 15 months old, 66% of existing iPhone users are very/somewhat likely to buy the iPhone 5, pointing to a large pending upgrade cycle.

• 54% of surveyed Sprint subscribers and 53% of surveyed T-Mobile subscribers say they are significantly/somewhat more likely to buy the iPhone, if available.

• Survey data also shows strong iPad 2 back-to-school buying indications, with 26% very/somewhat likely to buy the iPad 2. ChangeWave survey data shows 85% of all tablet buyers plan to buy the iPad, up from 82% in February.

Based on these results, Abramsky has raised his fourth quarter iPad estimate to 12.5 million units (from 10.5 million) and his first quarter 2012 iPhone estimate to 27 million units (from 24.4 million). His Q4 2011 iPhone estimate remains unchanged at 19.5 million.

Below: A ChangeWave chart of tablet-buying intentions that should strike fear in the hearts of Apple's (AAPL) competitors.

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