How dependent is the world on Saudi Arabian oil?

That's one of the many questions global oil markets are asking on Monday, after Saturday's attacks on the Abqaiq oil refinery and the Khurais oilfield, the heart of the Kingdom's crude production. The attacks highlight not just the rising tensions in the region, but serve as a timely reminder of the scale of Saudi's contribution to global oil markets—they knocked out about half the country's export capacity and around 5% of the world's crude supply.

Alongside the geopolitical tensions—this is only the latest, but most severe, of several attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure in recent months—the fresh supply uncertainty sent oil prices bucking, rising as much as 20% earlier on Monday—the largest inter-day jump since the 1980s—before coming off slightly. On Monday morning, Brent was still up by around 11%, putting it on track for a two-month high.

But buried in those headline figures is an ongoing power shift: years into the shale boom, U.S. oil now makes up nearly 10% of the world's oil supply (up from about 1% less than a decade ago), with production forecast to peak in 2030, according to energy consultancy Rystad.

全球对沙特阿拉伯的石油到底有多依赖？

本周一，这成了全球石油市场想问的诸多问题之一。上周六，Abqaiq炼厂和Khurais油田遭到袭击，两处均为沙特原油生产中心。此次袭击不仅凸显了该地区日益加剧的紧张形势，也及时提醒了人们沙特对全球石油市场的贡献有多大——此次袭击影响到了该国一半左右的出口能力，约占全球大约5%的原油供应。

最近几个月以来，沙特的石油基础设施遭受了多起袭击，这只是最新的一起，但是最严重的一起。地缘政治形势持续紧张，再加上新供应存在不确定性，导致周一早些时候油价暴涨20%，创下20世纪80年代以来的最大日内涨幅，随后略有回落。周一早上布伦特原油价格还是上涨了11%左右，有望创下两个月新高。

引人注目的数据里，隐藏着石油生产重心的持续转移：能源咨询公司Rystad的数据显示，页岩油行业繁荣发展多年之后，美国石油供应在全球供应总量中所占比例现已达到将近10%（不到10年前仅为1%左右），预计到2030年产量将达到峰值。

Meanwhile, since ending a 40-year ban on exporting crude in 2015, the U.S. has also frequently become a net exporter, though this varies month to month. In June of this year, for example, the U.S. was the source of about 12% of global crude exports, according to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative—though still far less than Saudi Arabia, with 23% of crude exports that month.

"The world is not even close to being able to replace more than 5 million [barrels per day] of Saudi Arabian exports," said Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy in Oslo. "The market’s reaction to Saudi Arabia’s importance, in the new era of U.S. shale, will now be put to the test."

That's, in part, a test of whether the U.S. can and will scale up exports in the short-term, if necessary. Tonhaugen notes that the U.S. is one of the only countries that can dramatically ramp up crude exports—even by as much as 1 million barrels per day, from around 3 million barrels per day at present—if needed to fill a gap in the market. (Russia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq could also increase output, Rystad estimates—but not at the same pace.)

However, that's still not enough to completely take the bite out of a sudden drop in Saudi exports.

"The impact and the next course of action will depend on the duration of the outage," said Vima Jayabalan, research director at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. "Saudi Arabia has enough reserves to cover the shortfall over the next week, but if the outage extends, then filling the gap with the right type of crude quality could be a challenge."

Saudi Arabia has assured customers—around three quarters of its exports go to Asia—that it will meet contracts, by relying on large stock cushions parked not just in the country, but in storage in the Netherlands, Egypt and Japan. So a genuine shortage—rather than just a price hike—will ultimately be a question of how quickly Saudi Arabia can fix the damage.

The lingering lesson, meanwhile, will be whether the world needs Saudi oil quite as much as it used to.

与此同时，美国2015年结束长达40年的原油出口禁令之后，还经常变成净出口国，每个月的情况都有所不同。例如，根据原油行业监控机构“联合组织数据倡议”的数据，今年6月份美国的原油出口量在全球总出口量中占比为12%左右，不过仍旧远远低于原油出口量占23%的沙特阿拉伯。

“想找到能替代（每日）出口超过500万桶的沙特阿拉伯，还差得很远，” 奥斯陆能源调查公司Rystad Energy的石油市场研究主管Bjørnar Tonhaugen说道，“在美国页岩油蓬勃发展的新时代，市场对沙特阿拉伯的重要性认识正经受考验。”

从一定程度上来说，这也是考验美国在必要时能否做到短期内扩大出口。Tonhaugen指出，如果要填补市场缺口，美国是少数几个可以大幅提高原油出口量的国家之一，最多可以提高100万桶/日，而目前的出口量约为300万桶/日。（Rystad估计，俄罗斯、阿联酋、科威特和伊拉克也可以提高产量，但是规模赶不上美国。）

然而，即便其他产油国提升产量，也没法完全抵消沙特出口量突然下降的影响。

“此事的影响和下一步行动将取决于供应中断多久，”咨询公司Wood Mackenzie的研究总监Vima Jayabalan 说道，“沙特阿拉伯有足够的储备填补下周的缺口，但如果停产持续下去，想找到品质相当的原油填补缺口可能存在挑战。”

沙特阿拉伯约四分之三的原油出口都面向亚洲客户，也已保证将用大量缓冲库存来履行合同，有些库存存放在沙特阿拉伯国内，有些存放在荷兰、埃及和日本。因此，短缺问题能否真正解决最终要看沙特阿拉伯修复受损设施的速度，短期内油价上涨并不是关键。

与此同时，另一个课题也值得持续思考，即世界是否将像过去一样需要那么多的沙特石油。（财富中文网）

译者：艾伦

审校：夏林