The automobile industry’s future looks a bit rough thanks to a decline in auto sales and sign-ups for driver’s licenses. So, Ford is expanding its horizons with plans to launch a self-driving ride-share service in 2021, CNBC reports. It’s a direction that will ultimately clash with the likes of Uber, Lyft, and General Motors (GM), among others.

The company has been testing a self-driving Ford Fusion in Miami for nine months. The cars are expensive but “the cost per mile for transportation for a person or a business is going to be lower and will be profitable for us,” Sherif Marakby, CEO of Ford Autonomous Vehicles, told CNBC.

Counting on future car sales is risky. Total unit year-over-year sales growth has been turning negative since 2016, according to government data via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. And a University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute study found a continuous multi-decade decrease in the percentage of driver’s licenses held by 16- through 44-year-olds, reducing the potential market.

Others are also aiming for self-driving ride-share services. GM is putting $100 million into self-driving car production, The Verge reported, and the company has plans for its own service in 2019, according to Bloomberg.

Lyft and Uber also are serious about the technology. The latter was piloting self-driving uberX cars in Pittsburgh, but then it had the world’s first self-driving fatality when a car ran into a woman in Tempe, Ariz.

And that’s the rub. Tests by AAA show the current systems don’t always work, as the Associated Press reported. Earlier Insurance for Highway Safety tests had similar results.

The tech is improving, but must get better fast enough for auto makers to steer clear of the financial red line.

由于汽车销量和司机驾驶证注册量的下滑，汽车业的未来似乎有些黯淡。所以，福特（Ford）正在扩大业务范围，据CNBC报道，他们计划在2021年推出自动驾驶拼车服务。在这个方向上，他们将最终与Uber、Lyft和通用汽车（General Motors）等公司展开竞争。

福特已经在迈阿密对一辆自动驾驶型的福特Fusion进行了九个月的测试。福特自动驾驶汽车公司（Ford Autonomous Vehicles）的首席执行官谢里夫·马拉科比在接受CNBC采访时表示，这款汽车很贵，但是“个人或公司的每英里运输费用将会降低，对我们而言是有利可图的”。

押宝未来的汽车销售，要冒很大的风险。圣路易斯联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis）发布的政府数据显示，从2016年起，汽车销售总量已经开始出现负增长。密歇根大学（University of Michigan）交通运输研究所（Transportation Research Institute）的一项研究也发现，16岁至44岁的人群中持有驾照者的比例已经连续数十年出现下降，这导致潜在市场在不断缩小。

其他公司也把目标投向了自动驾驶拼车服务。据网站The Verge报道，通用汽车在自动驾驶汽车的生产上投入了1亿美元。彭博社（Bloomberg）还报道称，该公司计划在2019年推出自己的相关服务。

Lyft和Uber也在认真对待这项技术。后者曾在匹兹堡测试自动驾驶的uberX汽车，不过该款汽车随后在亚利桑那州的坦佩撞倒了一位女士，造成了全球第一起自动驾驶汽车致人死亡的案件。

这就是难点所在。美联社报道称，AAA的测试显示目前的自动驾驶系统有时会失灵。之前Insurance for Highway Safety的测试也得出了类似的结论。

自动驾驶技术在不断进步，不过它进步的速度还需更快一点，才能让汽车厂商远离财务红线。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正