It’s a good time to be a car buyer.

Dealers are offering the biggest discounts since the Great Recession, and a combination of historically low gas prices and improvements in fuel efficiency mean consumers can upgrade from cars to SUVs without forking over a huge chunk of their paycheck to gas stations each month.

But the story is entirely different for U.S. carmakers and dealers. Although the auto industry has enjoyed record sales recently, there are early signs that the party could soon be over.

And that could spell trouble for President Trump’s economic agenda. Although he has celebrated automakers General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Ford, and Toyota for announcing new jobs at U.S. factories, these manufacturers could soon be caught in a bit of a contradiction, with weaker earnings ahead leading to furloughs or even job cuts if they’re forced to cut production.

Broadly speaking, autos make up about 3% of the country’s gross domestic product, but account for a slightly larger share of inflation metrics like the Consumer Price Index and the Fed’s preferred measure of prices, known as personal consumption expenditures.

This may sound small, but it's enough for a steep decline in the auto sector to shave a few tenths from both GDP and the inflation metrics, limiting Trump’s ability to reach the rapid economic growth he has promised and hampering the Federal Reserve’s target for 2% inflation.

Here’s how it could play out.

We’re at peak auto sales: The auto industry has enjoyed a boom over the last few years. Vehicle sales hit records in 2015 and 2016, as more jobs, rising wages, low interest rates and historically low gasoline prices fueled consumers to replace older vehicles and upgrade from cars to SUVs. Meanwhile, a recovery in the housing market boosted sales of pickup trucks.

But now industry experts say they’ve reached the peak and there’s nowhere to go but down. Speaking Tuesday at a forum ahead of the New York International Auto Show, a Toyota executive admitted as much, forecasting U.S. sales for the entire industry will decline to between 17 million and 17.2 million units in 2017, down from a record high of 17.5 million the year before.

Bob Carter, president of Toyota’s U.S. sales unit, called the industry “over the top” and noted that Toyota’s discounts are “higher than we’ve ever experienced.”

Toyota certainly isn’t alone. Dealers are having to offer consumers the biggest discounts since the Great Recession to move new cars off the lots. These discounts averaged about $3,900 per vehicle in the first three months of 2017, or about 10.5% of the average manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) for a new vehicle, notes J.D. Power forecaster Thomas King.

“The industry is using tactics to maintain their sales pace, which is creating challenges,” he told Fortune. “There’s a risk of a hangover to come.”

There’s a glut of both new and used cars. Part of the reason why dealers are offering such deep discounts is because they’re producing more cars than there is demand. After record sales for two years running, there’s less appetite from consumers to replace older vehicles.

In addition, dealers selling new cars are facing increased competition from used vehicles. During a weak job market in the recession, drivers held on to their cars for longer than usual, meaning that there were fewer used vehicles on the market and prices climbed to record highs. But now those used vehicles are coming back on to the market, driving the prices down.

Dealers selling new cars have to compete with some pretty amazing deals on gently used vehicles.

“If you were shopping for a vehicle, and you happen to look at the used vehicle lot, you’re going to see a much bigger selection of nice used vehicles,” King said.

What's more, this slump in used vehicle prices hurts consumers who want to trade in their older models. As used vehicles depreciate faster, car buyers will find they have less equity than they may have expected when turning in an older vehicle.

Longer loans, the Fed’s rate hikes and rising delinquencies will all squeeze automakers’ profit margins. In the first quarter, more than a third of new auto loans were dated 72 months or longer. Consumers are locking in these six-year loans to get lower monthly payments, and as a result are choosing to buy more expensive vehicles with more features. A lot can change in the economy, not to mention an individual’s personal finances over a period of six years or more, and it could be argued that many buyers are spending more than they can afford.

These longer loan durations are increasing the risk of defaults, and already the Federal Reserve Bank of New York data show new delinquencies are back at their highest levels since 2008.

Higher delinquencies can foreshadow losses for carmakers and financiers, who have recently made 0% financing a widespread phenomenon. Delinquencies and interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve will further squeeze automakers’ profit margins, limiting their ability to keep offering deep discounts to customers.

Finally, automakers and dealers are left with just two choices: Either cut production or introduce even steeper discounts to keep selling record numbers of vehicles.

Over the short-term, this mix of strategies could keep auto sales stable around their latest record highs, but not without posing longterm consequences on the industry.

“The pieces of the puzzle are coming together to point to weakness ahead for the auto sector, but there is the lingering question of how quickly the story will evolve,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists Michelle Meyer and Alexander Lin wrote in a recent note to clients, aptly titled: “Are we heading into a car crash?”

The answer? Not yet, but stay tuned.

“So far, the slowdown in the pace of auto sales is manageable for the economy,” they concluded.

现在又到了买车的好时候。

首先，各大经销商都给出了经济危机以来最大的优惠力度。其次，随着油价跌至历史最低水平，加之汽车燃油经济性不断改善，消费者每月不需要掏多少额外的加油费用，就能将家里的小轿车换成大排量的SUV。

但对于美国的汽车厂商和经销商来说，情况却是全然另一付样子。虽然汽车行业的总体销量再创历史新高，但目前已有迹象表明，这场“销量盛宴”只怕很快就要结束。

这很可能会给特朗普的经济计划带来一定的麻烦。虽然近来通用汽车、菲亚特克莱斯勒、福特以及丰田等厂商纷纷宣布，要在美国境内的工厂招聘更多工人，但它们或许很快就会陷入进退两难的状态。面对收益疲软的局面，如果他们被迫削减产能，那么在人员去留的问题上，就只能选择暂时或永久裁员。

在更大层面上看，汽车产业占到了美国国内生产总值的3%左右，它在消费价格指数等通胀指标以及美联储青睐的一些价格指标（如个人消费支出）中所占的比例则要更高一些。

这个比例虽然貌似很小，但是汽车产业的急剧下滑足以导致GDP和通胀指标都出现相当程度的下降。这一方面会导致特朗普承诺的快速经济增长无法实现，另一方面也会导致美联储难以兑现2%的通胀目标。

现在我们来解释一下为什么会发生这种局面。

首先，汽车销量已到达顶峰。汽车产业的发展在过去几年出现了一个小高潮，汽车销量也在2015年和2016年连续创下纪录。这主要是由就业率升高、工资水平上涨、低利率和历史性的低油价等因素共同导致的。这些因素也给消费者提供了换车或者将家轿换成SUV的动机。与此同时，房地产市场的回暖也推高了皮卡车型的销量。

不过行业专家表示，汽车销量已经达到了顶峰，下一步必然会出现下滑。本周二在纽约国际车展开幕前的一次论坛上，丰田公司的一位高管对这一趋势表示认可，并预测今年美国汽车行业的销量将从去年的1750万辆下滑至1700到1720万辆之间。

丰田汽车美国销售部负责人鲍勃·卡特也表示，美国的汽车产业现在已经“到顶了”，并指出丰田的优惠力度“比我们以往经历的任何时候都高。”

丰田并不是唯一提高优惠力度的厂商。为了卖出尽可能多的新车，美国各大经销商都向消费者给出经济危机以来最大的折扣力度。如J.D.Power公司的分析师托马斯·金指出，今年一至三月，各大经销商的新车平均折扣达到了3900美元每辆，几乎占到了厂商平均建议零售价的10.5%。

托马斯·金对《财富》表示：“汽车行业正在使用各种策略保持他们的销售空间，而这也带来了一些挑战，很可能会导致一些后遗症。”

其次，新车和二手车市场都供大于求。各大经销商之所以纷纷推出史无前例的优惠力度，有一个很重要的原因就是市场显著供大于求。而随着销量连续两年创造新高，今年消费者换车的欲望已经不像前两年那样强烈了。

另外，新车经销商也日益受到了二手车市场的竞争。在经济危机期间，由于就业市场疲软，很多车主都选择了推迟换车，也就是说，当时市场上的二手车是比较少的，二手车价格也因此上升到了创纪录的高水平。然而现在二手车市场再次热闹了起来，二手车的价格也就随之下降了。

在这种情况下，消费者可能会以很低的价格买到车况还不错的二手车，这给新车经销商造成了很大的竞争压力。

“如果你想买车，又恰巧看了一眼二手车市场，你就会发现，可供选择的品相较好的二手车明显变多了。”

二手车价格的下降也挫伤了想卖车的消费者的积极性。由于二手车的贬值速度加快了，车主在卖车的时候就会发现，卖车的价格要低于此前他们预期的心理价位。

再次，利率上涨以及拖欠贷款行为的增多都会挤压厂商的利润。今年第一季度，超过三分之一的新车贷款的偿还期都在72个月或以上。消费者之所以选择长达6年的还款期，就是想降低每个月的还款数额，这样一来，他们就有能力购买更贵的车型或者更高的配置。然而在这漫长的六年里，就连一个国家的经济形势都可能发生很多错综复杂的变化，更不用说一个人的个人经济状况了。更何况很多买车的人还是“打肿脸充胖子”，实际上是负担不起自己所购买的车型的。

车贷还款周期的普遍拉长也加大了贷款违约的风险。纽约联邦储备银行的数据已经表明，目前的不良贷款数已经逼近了2008年以来的最高水平。

贷款违约的增长很可能导致汽车厂商和提供车贷的金融机构遭受损失，尤其是当前很多厂商和金融机构都打出了“0利率购车”的旗号。贷款违约和利率的上涨很可能会进一步挤压汽车厂商的利润空间，从而削弱他们进一步向消费者提供优惠的能力。

最后，汽车厂商和经销商只剩下两个选择：要么削减产能，要么推出更大的折扣力度，继续刷新销量纪录。

从短期看来，汽车行业如果综合采用这两种策略，有可能会让汽车销量继续稳定在近期的水平，但这并不能避免行业的长期风险。

美银美林的经济学家米歇尔·梅尔和亚历山大·林最近在一篇题为《我们是否正在走向一次撞车？》的文章中写道：“所有的拼图都已拼好，所有迹象都指向了汽车行业所面临的问题。关键是这种情况多久才会变化。”

对于这一问题，虽然尚无明确答案，但敬请继续保持关注。

两位经济学家最后指出：“到目前看来，汽车行业的销量下降对于整体经济来说还是可控的。”（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎