On Monday, December 8, the newly-christened CSCL Globe left port in Shanghai en route to Europe on its maiden voyage. Capable of carrying 19,100 twenty-foot shipping containers—19,100 TEU, as they say in the industry—the Globe, constructed by Hyundai Heavy Industries and owned by the state-run China Shipping Company, is now the world’s largest container ship by volume. It is also among the largest ships in operation by raw size, at 400 meters long and 59 meters wide. If you cut the antenna tower off the Empire State Building, it would be 20 meters shorter than the Globe is long.

    But the CSCL Globe is more than just a really, really big ship. Its massive size reflects equally massive changes that have reshaped the ocean shipping industry over the past decade as carriers build ever-bigger ships to capture economies of scale in fuel and crew costs. The capital-intensive strategy is squeezing out smaller players and triggering consolidation across an industry that has long resisted it, while putting new demands on global shipping infrastructure.

    So-called megaships have come to dominate container shipping with astonishing rapidity over the past decade. The industry was bowled over in 2003 by the arrival of the then-massive OOCL Shenzhen—but its 8,063 TEU capacity is unremarkable by today’s standards.

    The shift to larger ships was pushed along by the global financial crisis and rising fuel costs. After rates for container shipping hit record highs in the 1990s and early 2000s, prices collapsed along with global trade in 2008 and 2009. Orders to shipbuilders around the world were cancelled in droves.

    When orders picked up again, they were almost all for megaships. Hyundai Heavy Industries, for instance, reports that since 2010 it has built 82 ships of more than 10,000 TEU but has received orders for only five ships in the 5,000 TEU range.

    These capital-intensive larger ships have, predictably, concentrated in the hands of the largest carriers. “To play with the big boys now, you have to be putting a huge amount of money out,” says Sam Chambers, editorial director of the trade journal SinoShip. According to a Drewry Maritime Research report from July 2014, MSC operates 696 ships above 10,000 TEU, Maersk operates 433, and CMA CGM Group has 363.

    12月8日周一，这艘全新的中海集运“环球号”离开上海港驶往欧洲，开始了它的首航。“环球号”可装载1.91万个20英尺标准集装箱（或业内所称的1.91万TEU），由韩国现代重工集团建造，隶属于中国海运集团总公司，是目前全球容量最大的集装箱船只，长400米，宽59米，单是其尺寸就已跻身目前世界最大的运营船舶之列。如果不计算纽约帝国大厦楼顶的天线塔，那么该船的长度比帝国大厦的高度还要多出20米。

    但中海集运“环球号”绝不仅仅是一艘巨轮而已。其巨大的尺寸同样反映出过去十年间航运界发生的巨大变化。为了实现燃油和人工方面的规模效益，航运公司建造的船只越来越大，而这一变化重塑了整个行业。这种资本密集型战略正在把小竞争者挤出市场，也在促使此前长期抵触整合的航运界开始了全行业的整合，同时也对全球海运基础设施提出了新的要求。

    过去十年间，巨型船舶以令人惊叹的发展速度开始引领集装箱船运市场。2003年，深圳东方海外的巨型集装箱船曾经征服了当时的市场，但以今天的标准来看，其8063标箱的容量已不足为奇。

    全球金融危机和不断攀升的燃油价格也是船只尺寸变大的推手。集装箱船的运价在90年代至21世纪早期达到历史高点后，于2008至2009年间随着全球贸易的萎缩出现暴跌，各地造船厂的订单都被陆续取消。

    随后，虽然订单量再次回升，但几乎所有的订单都是巨型船舶。比如，韩国现代重工的报告表示，自2010年起它们已建造了82艘容量超过1万标箱的船只，但只有5笔容量为5000标箱的订单。

    可以预想，这些资本密集型的大船已经集中在规模最大的海运公司手中。行业刊物《中国船运》编辑主任萨姆•钱伯斯说：“要和大佬们玩，你就得花大价钱” 。德鲁里海事研究公司2014年7月的报告显示，地中海航运运营的船只当中容量超1万标箱的有696艘，马士基有433艘，达飞有363艘。

    The efficiencies of the larger ships are a boon for individual shippers, and for the global environment. They consume as little as 50% of the fuel per container moved as older ships, while also more than halving insurance and staffing costs. A megaship requires the same 20-odd crew as a smaller ship but can carry three times the cargo.

    The effect on the industry as a whole is less sanguine. “In terms of supply and demand, the industry is blighted by what we describe as structural overcapacity,” says Simon Heaney, Drewry’s senior manager of supply chain research. Large carriers have mitigated that oversupply to a degree through a practice known as “slow-steaming”—intentionally operating ships at as little as half their normal speed, which both reins in capacity and offers further fuel savings.

    With less access to efficiencies of scale or speed, smaller carriers are losing ground fast. Carriers outside of the global top 10 operate only dozens or, in some cases, zero megaships. Some have been forced into mergers, such as the acquisition of CSAV by Hapag-Lloyd in April. Further consolidation has taken the form of cargo-sharing agreements. By early 2015, the Asia-Europe container trade will be entirely controlled by just four major alliances.

    Infrastructure limitations have kept the largest of the megaships confined to those Asia-Europe routes. Ships the size of the CSCL Globe are too large to fit through the Panama Canal, and neither East nor West Coast U.S. ports are equipped to handle them anyway. The expansion of the Panama Canal to accommodate megaships is underway, and the Hong Kong-based investment group HKND is currently exploring the construction of a large canal across Nicaragua. But the megaships are having ripple effects around the world by pushing older, smaller ships out of service on Asia-Europe routes, inflating capacity and pushing down prices everywhere.

    Industry watchers say the CSCL Globe is unlikely to retain its world’s-biggest title for long. Sam Chambers of SinoShip expects to see a 20,000 TEU ship ordered by early 2015, and ships of up to 24,000 TEU would be viable with current Asia-Europe infrastructure. That would mean continued chronic overcapacity, and even more pressure on smaller shippers worldwide.

    大船效率的提高对于个体承运人和全球大环境来说都有益处。其单个集装箱运输所耗燃油仅为老船只的50%，保险和人工成本也降低了一半多。和较小的船只相比，一艘巨型船舶同样需要20多个船员，但运力却是小船的三倍。

    巨型船舶对整个行业的影响则没有那么乐观。德鲁里供应链研究高级经理赛门•希尼说：“供求方面，行业遭遇了我们所说的结构性产能过剩的冲击”。大的运输公司通过“减速航行”的方式来削弱过度供给造成的影响，即刻意地让船以正常航速的一半来航行，既控制运力，也进一步节省了燃油。

    由于难以获得规模效益或在速度上做文章，小型运输公司的处境迅速恶化。全球排名前十之外的运输公司仅运营着几十艘巨型船，有些甚至连一艘都没有。其中的一些公司被迫投入他人的怀抱，比如4月份赫伯罗特就并购了南美轮船。此外，货运共享协议也是行业整合的另一种形式。到2015年初，仅四大海运联盟就可以完全控制亚欧集装箱业务。

    由于基础设施的限制，巨型船舶中尺寸最大的都只能在亚欧航线上运营。像中海集运“环球号”这样尺寸的船已经无法通过巴拿马运河，而以目前的设施水平，美国东海岸和西海岸的港口也都无力接纳这样的船只。巴拿马运河扩容工程目前正在进行，投资集团香港尼加拉瓜运河开发投资有限公司也准备在尼加拉瓜开发建造一条运河。巨型船舶所产生的涟漪效应已波及世界各地，因为它迫使老船和小船退出亚欧航线的运营，并造成了运力的膨胀和运价的普降。

    行业观察者说，中海集运“环球号”世界第一的称号可能不会长久。《中国海运》杂志的萨姆•钱伯斯预计，2015年初可能会出现2万标箱的船只订单，以目前亚欧航线基础设施情况来看，未来制造2.4万标箱的船只也是可行的。而这意味着，产能过剩的局面将会长时间持续，同时也会为全球的小型运输公司带来更大的压力。（财富中文网）

    译者：Donna

    审稿：李翔