牛市一定要回来

从6月中旬至7月初,中国股市经过了 1800点的惨烈下跌,其速度之快,幅度之深,都是前所未有的,让不少投资者痛不欲生。

这轮大跌不是因为估值过高引起的回调,而是有做空势力在兴风作浪。不少人联想起了1949年的证券大楼事件。495月,上海解放,人民政府宣布废除法币,流通人民币。但上海市民对新生的人民币缺乏信心,一些投机分子趁机炒作银元,结果造成人民币对银元大幅贬值,物价飞涨。新政府调集大量物资进沪,试图通过增加供给平抑物价,但反而给奸商提供了囤积居奇的机会,结果物价涨得更凶,群众怨声载道。眼见金融形势无法稳定,政府只能放大招:派警察查封证券大楼,把投机分子抓起来。人民币自此得以正常流通。

这轮大跌也有相似之处。管理层在七月初连续推出救市措施,不惜停发新股,动用真金白银托市,可给人的感觉是,救市措施越多,股市跌得越惨。直到79日,公安部副部长进驻证监会调查恶意做空,股市这才发生逆转。

可是,事情并没有从此一帆风顺。大涨三天后,市场又发生颠簸,千股跌停再度出现,甚至有二次探底的迹象。经过这么一番折腾,不少投资者的资产已化作一地鸡毛,尤其是那些动用杠杆炒股的。看来,要让股市彻底反转并非易事。

不过,笔者认为,A股仍有有投资的价值。此前,笔者颇为看好基建类的企业,特别提到了南北车。但是,合并后的中车股价大跌6成,投资者伤心欲绝,不少人说中车就是第二个中石油。其实,这两家公司不具有可比性。化石能源没有未来,高铁有。高铁是中国最有竞争力的产业之一。面对经济下行的压力,中国会把这个产业发展到极致,不仅修遍全中国,还要修到世界各地。此外,高铁产业还有极大的升级潜力。常规高铁修到头了,还可以造磁悬浮运输系统。中国已经掌握真空管磁悬浮技术,列车的理论时速可达每小时5000公里,一旦进入实用阶段,将给运输带来了革命性的变化。想想看,如果未来横跨大西洋的真空管磁悬浮列车,只需两个多小时就能把人们从中国带到美国,这该有多么激动人心!在新的科技革命降临之前,高铁就是中国保增长的利器。中国一定会把它做到让人瞠目结舌的地步。所以说,中车的发展其实不可限量的。笔者甚至认为,中车是两家有可能达到中石油、中石化这样的巨无霸体量的企业之一(另一家是中国建筑)。

与铁路和基建一样的有潜力的,是军工产业。中国公司正纷纷走出国门,谋求新的增长。但如果国家军事投送能力跟不上,则很难保证自家企业在国门之外的利益。很多投资者觉得,军工类企业普遍业绩不好,估值很高,绝对价格也不低,完全依靠题材或概念在炒作。但中航工业集团董事长林左鸣不这样认为。7月下旬,他在接受采访时说,中航工业所属上市公司的股价并没有高估,航空工业作为军工高科技产业,其价值的核心在于具有强大的科技实力作为支撑。由于保密原因,中航工业有很多重要的技术并没有对外公布,如果这些项目进入资本市场,其价值前景不可估量。林左鸣特别提到了一种材料:第一,我们正在全力以赴推动新材料研制,我们已经研制出来的新材料,将极有可能掀起一场材料进步的革命。

笔者不是资深军迷,但对这种材料也有所耳闻。去年年底,林左鸣在珠海航展上做了一期央视《对话》节目,提到中航工业正在研发一种可以“吃掉”各种雷达波的“黑体材料”。我们知道,隐形飞机要逃过雷达探测,七分靠外形,三分靠机身表面昂贵的吸波涂层。而有了这种黑体材料,制造飞机时就不必考虑气动外形的隐身问题,用它制造出来的任何种类的飞行器都有隐身效果。林左鸣同时暗示,使用了这种材料制造飞机后,仍有办法确保飞机之间的数据交换畅通,不会被这种材料吃掉。他在7月份股灾后再度提及这种材料,用以证明集团所属上市公司的价值,这说明这个技术趋向成熟。黑体材料将是一项具有重大战略意义的技术,有可能改变世界政治格局。相信在未来,中国军工业会涌现出各种各样的黑科技,支持其上市公司的估值。

眼下,牛市对中国经济意义重大。金融危机以后,中国的发展依靠四万亿刺激计划支撑,GDP增长迅速,因而对股市走熊不甚在意。但现在,刺激计划已经不管用了。企业需要牛市来融资,地方政府需要牛市改善财务状况,普通人希望牛市给自己的资产增值。上半年,中国经济增长能达到7%,股市做出了相当的贡献。股市走熊,会使国家和个人陷入一场大败局。林左鸣在接受采访时认为,股市一旦崩盘,可能危及五星红旗。能让一位实体行业的国企领导人说出这样的话,可见股市对中国经济的重要性了。

牛市,你一定要回来。

 


阅读数 24,525 / 24,525 views



牛市一定要回来》上有 42 条评论

  1. Merely a smiling visitant here to share the love (:, btw outstanding style and design. “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not one bit simpler.” by Albert Einstein.

  2. Appreciate it for helping out, great info .

  3. gopro camera best buy 说道:

    Coming from my notice, shopping for electronics online can for sure be expensive, although there are some tips and tricks that you can use to acquire the best deals. There are constantly ways to locate discount bargains that could make one to hold the best consumer electronics products at the smallest prices. Good blog post.

    http://neide.ga/estroneeviews12463

  4. navy blue hair fascinator 说道:

    Hey, you used to write fantastic, but the last few posts have been kinda boring¡K I miss your tremendous writings. Past several posts are just a little out of track! come on!

    http://pinkfascinator.com/navy-blue-fascinators-for-wedding-events-are-beauty-personified/

  5. sgs 540 说道:

    Very good – I enjoyed this content

    http://saltwater-chlorinator.com/sgs-breeze-540/

  6. You have brought up a very fantastic points , regards for the post.

  7. Corey Merlino 说道:

    I do trust all the ideas you’ve introduced for your post. They are very convincing and will certainly work. Still, the posts are very quick for beginners. Could you please extend them a little from subsequent time? Thanks for the post.

    http://www.2IXjBLmcUu.com/2IXjBLmcUu

  8. I got what you mean , regards for posting .Woh I am thankful to find this website through google. “Do not be too timid and squeamish about your actions. All life is an experiment.” by Ralph Waldo Emerson.

  9. Margorie Nommay 说道:

    Thanks for your posting. What I want to point out is that while searching for a good on the web electronics go shopping, look for a web page with full information on important factors such as the privacy statement, basic safety details, payment procedures, along with terms in addition to policies. Constantly take time to look at help along with FAQ areas to get a superior idea of how a shop is effective, what they can perform for you, and in what way you can make use of the features.

    https://iphonespyapp.com/retrieve-deleted-text-messages/

  10. Very interesting information!Perfect just what I was searching for! “We are shaped and fashioned by what we love.” by Johann von Goethe.

  11. Its great as your other content : D, regards for putting up. “History is a pact between the dead, the living, and the yet unborn.” by Edmund Burke.

  12. Its superb as your other content : D, appreciate it for posting . “There’s no Walter Cronkite to give you the final word each evening.” by William Weld.

  13. Only wanna input on few general things, The website style and design is perfect, the content material is rattling wonderful. “To imagine is everything, to know is nothing at all.” by Anatole France.

  14. Only wanna comment that you have a very decent website , I enjoy the layout it actually stands out.

  15. You are my breathing in, I have few web logs and occasionally run out from brand :). “Yet do I fear thy nature It is too full o’ the milk of human kindness.” by William Shakespeare.

  16. of course like your web-site but you have to take a look at the spelling on quite a few of your posts. A number of them are rife with spelling problems and I find it very troublesome to inform the truth however I’ll definitely come back again.

  17. Akilah Binienda 说道:

    “Mine,” I snarled and thrust.

    sensualstudio.com.pl

  18. Lettie Wearrien 说道:

    “We were waiting for Lee and Alicia to get older.” Tears beaded my mom’s eyes. “We wanted to make sure everyone in the family was mature enough to understand and not freak out. We wanted to make sure you wouldn’t tell people, even by accident, and start rumors. It might have made things weird for you at school or something. And then…”

    http://www.dux-promotion.pl

  19. Alejandra Boehl 说道:

    Stairs creaked. Bare feet padded.

    http://www.6sense.pl

  20. click 说道:

    In this time of multi-tasking, people say “I don’t have time”. Hula and martial arts are all component of the exact same family. You maintain their legs or arms in a way which doesn’t let them punch of kick you.

    kongfu.camp

  21. Weng Chun 说道:

    I call that “walking a tightrope” and it is very unstable. As Anthony Robbins is fond of stating, “Success leaves clues.”. See what courses are provided at your nearby gym or community school.

    http://indyarocks.com/blog/3387733/The-Art-Of-Combined-Martial-Arts-And-How-Your-Health-Can-Benefit

  22. Just wanna input on few general things, The website style is perfect, the content material is real wonderful : D.

  23. Masako Honea 说道:

    Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is important and all. Nevertheless just imagine if you added some great images or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with pics and videos, this site could certainly be one of the very best in its field. Great blog!

    http://www.digitaloceanpromocode2016.com/

  24. Lorine Krysl 说道:

    These statements unreliable. I think we should be careful and check it all.

    http://ogloszenia.szczecin.pl/edukacja/korepetycje/matematyka-angielski-chemia-tanio-i-profesjonalnie_i487437

  25. Sheldon Silk 说道:

    Good valuable information . This will be useful. Thanks.

    http://beihai.ooke.cn/member/homepage.php?uid=3915

  26. http://bit.do/bestplacetobuyatv 说道:

    you’re truly a good webmaster. The web site loading pace is amazing. It seems that you are doing any unique trick. In addition, The contents are masterpiece. you’ve performed a excellent task on this topic!

  27. rozliczanie PIT Łódź 说道:

    This is a reliable partner in business.

    http://www.forumgrzewcze.pl/topic/586-dzien-dobry-wszystkim/

  28. Angla Elleby 说道:

    I wanted to thank you for this {great|excellent|fantastic|wonderful|good|very

    http://5-zdan.blogspot.com/2016/01/jak-odszukac-prawidowego-mecenasa.html

  29. Taylor Soros 说道:

    Hola! I’ve been reading your blog

    http://biome314159.tumblr.com/post/135317738330

  30. Aliza Parrot 说道:

    hallo. Vielen Dank für nützliche Web-Seite. Ich stimme mit jedem Wort in der Web-Seite. Guten Tag, ich danke Ihnen.

    deko-kunst.com

  31. Sunny Jacobsohn 说道:

    Even now I know where to refer a pretty good approach to the subject.

    http://sumiennyksiegowy.pl/sanok

  32. Connie Mifsud 说道:

    Very good content. A similar but more precise on the website. Is the same author?

    http://sumiennyksiegowy.pl/tarnow

  33. Jade Ayyad 说道:

    Selbst jetzt weiß ich, wo man eine ziemlich gute Annäherung an das Thema beziehen . Autor versucht werden. Grüße .

    http://sumiennyksiegowy.pl/debica

  34. Rosamaria Trimmell 说道:

    Serdeczne dzięki. Warto było przeczytać.

    http://sumiennyksiegowy.pl/zabrze/

  35. A lot of thanks for your whole effort on this web page. Ellie enjoys making time for research and it’s really simple to grasp why. We know all about the dynamic mode you make important tips and tricks on this web site and as well as recommend contribution from people about this situation while our own simple princess has been starting to learn a lot of things. Take pleasure in the remaining portion of the year. You have been conducting a tremendous job.

  36. Right here is the right website for everyone who really wants to understand this topic. You know so much its almost tough to argue with you (not that I really will need to…HaHa). You definitely put a fresh spin on a subject that has been discussed for decades. Great stuff, just wonderful!|

  37. Qué tal mi gente, muy bueno sin lugar a dudas Gracias de verdad, util 100%

发表评论

电子邮件地址不会被公开。 必填项已用*标注

:wink: :-| :-x :twisted: :) 8-O :( :roll: :-P :oops: :-o :mrgreen: :lol: :idea: :-D :evil: :cry: 8) :arrow: :-? :?: :!: